WASDE: Total Meat Production Forecast Increased

April 10, 2012 02:20 AM


LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is forecast slightly higher as higher midyear production is largely offset by lower-than-expected slaughter in the first quarter. 
The pork production forecast is raised as the March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pointed to a slightly higher-than-expected first-quarter pig crop. 
The broiler production forecast is raised for the first half of the year based on production data to date and stronger forecast first-half prices. Turkey production is forecast higher as turkey price forecasts are raised. The egg production forecast is raised slightly.
The beef export forecast for 2012 is lowered, reflecting the current pace of trade. Imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania. Pork exports are raised. The broiler export forecast is reduced slightly from last month on higher prices.
The cattle price for 2012 is lowered from last month based on weaker forecast second-quarter prices. The 2012 hog price is lowered based on revised first-quarter prices and a slightly weaker forecast for prices over the middle quarters. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised as current prices remain strong. Egg price forecasts are raised on stronger expected midyear prices.
The milk production forecast for 2012 is raised on increased milk cow numbers and gains in milk per cow. The skim solids import forecast is raised. The fat-basis export forecast is reduced on lower butter exports, but skim solids exports are forecast higher on stronger nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales.   Ending stock forecasts are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis.
With higher forecast 2012 milk production and weaker than expected product demand, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are lowered. As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price for 2012 is lowered to $17.25-$17.75 per cwt.
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.



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