LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production, USDA said today in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estiamtes (WASDE).
For beef, relatively large cattle placements in the fourth quarter of 2013 are expected to carry through into the first half of 2014, which will result in higher slaughter in 2014. Cow slaughter is also expected to remain relatively strong during the first half of 2014 with favorable cull cow prices. Pork production is lowered as reports indicate that Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) continues to spread. Broiler production is reduced on slower growth in slaughter. Turkey production is reduced as recent eggs-set and poult placements remain below a year earlier. Egg production is unchanged. Estimates of 2013 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect data for December.
Beef import and export forecasts for 2014 are unchanged from last month. Pork exports are lowered as tight supplies and high prices reduce competitiveness. The broiler export forecast is lowered as weaker-than-expected December exports and recent weakness in leg quarter prices may reflect reduced demand. Turkey exports are unchanged. The egg export forecast is raised. Meat and egg trade estimates for 2013 are updated based on data for December.
Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting tight supplies and recent price strength for fed cattle. The hog price forecast is raised on reduced supplies of market hogs and strong demand. Broiler, turkey, and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength and reduced supplies of competing meats in 2014.
The milk production forecast for 2014 is raised from last month on expected higher cow numbers in the second half of the year. USDA’s Cattle report estimated dairy replacement heifers expected to calve during 2014 were up about 2 percent from a year ago, while the number of milk cows was fractionally below a year ago. Strong returns resulting from higher milk prices and moderate feed costs are expected to boost expansion later in the year. Milk per cow is unchanged. Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on increased sales of butter and cheese. Skim-solids exports are lowered mostly on reduced exports of lactose. Fat and skim-solid imports are unchanged. For 2013, supply and use estimates for 2013 are updated based on data for December.
Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, and whey are higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) is lower for 2014 on expectations of competition from other exporters in second-half 2014. The Class III price is raised on higher cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is down as lower NDM more than offsets greater butter. The all milk price is forecast at $20.85-21.55 per cwt.