WASDE: Total Red Meat, Poultry Production Increased

11:05AM Dec 10, 2013
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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are raised from November. For 2013, small changes are made to the fourth quarter for the major species, based on slaughter data to date. The forecast for 2014 is raised based on higher expected cattle and hog carcass weights and higher cattle slaughter.

No change is made to 2014 broiler production, but the turkey production forecast is reduced based on hatchery data. Egg production is reduced slightly for both 2013 and early 2014.

Beef imports are lowered slightly for 2013, but no change is made to 2014. Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014. Pork imports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 based on estimates for the third quarter and early fourth quarter and expectations for slightly stronger imports in 2014. Pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are reduced from last month based on slightly weaker demand in Asia.

The 2013 broiler export forecast is lowered slightly based on exports to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for 2013 but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.

Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are raised from November as demand for fed cattle remains strong. Hog prices for 2013 are lowered as fourth-quarter prices have been slightly weaker-than-expected. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are raised from last month.

Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by expected tight supplies of beef and moderate production increases. Turkey prices are expected to be supported by slower forecast growth in production. Egg prices are forecast higher for 2013 and 2014, reflecting current price strength and lower forecast production.

The 2013 milk production forecast is reduced slightly from last month, based on recent estimates of cow numbers. The forecast for 2014 is raised as higher milk forecast prices and lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in cow numbers and output per cow. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2013 but are unchanged for 2014. On a skims-solids basis, imports are raised in 2013 but unchanged for 2014.

Exports are raised on a fats basis based on the strength of butterfat shipments to non-traditional markets. On a skims-solids basis, higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey exports are offset by lower lactose exports leading to a lower forecast for 2013, but for 2014, expected strength in NDM results in a higher skim-solids forecast.

For 2013, the cheese price forecast is reduced, reflecting current prices. However, strength in current prices for butter, NDM, and whey resulted in higher price forecasts for those products. For 2014, despite higher dairy production, demand strength in importing countries and improving domestic demand in the United States is expected to support prices for all products. The Class III milk price is unchanged for 2013 as lower forecast cheese prices offset higher whey prices but the forecast is raised for 2014 based on higher forecast cheese and whey prices.

The Class IV price forecast is raised for both years on higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $19.90 to $20.00 per cwt for 2013 and $19.70 to $20.50 per cwt for 2014.

Coverage, Analysis of the Dec. 10 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Dec. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.