COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected lower this month with reductions for corn, barley, and oats. A 125-million-bushel increase in projected corn exports reduces corn ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong export sales and a rising weekly shipment pace for U.S. corn during March support the higher expected export level as does an increase in projected global corn demand. U.S. barley ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 7 million bushels lower with projected imports decreased and projected exports increased based on the pace of shipments to date. Oats ending stocks are projected 10 million bushels lower with feed and residual use raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected December-February disappearance as indicated by the March 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels higher based on the high level of outstanding sales and the sharp increase in weekly shipments during March. Sorghum ending stocks, however, remain unchanged with an offsetting reduction made in domestic use based on the higher-than-expected March 1 stocks estimate.
The 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at the midpoint with the projected range also narrowed to $4.40 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $4.25 to $4.75 per bushel last month. The projected range for the sorghum farm price is also raised 10 cents to $4.15 to $4.55 per bushel. The barley and oats price ranges are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.00 to $6.20 per bushel and $3.65 to $3.75 per bushel, respectively. The June-May marketing year for barley and oats is nearing an end with most of the two crops already marketed and priced.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are raised 3.6 million tons with increases in foreign corn production far exceeding reductions for millet, sorghum, and barley. Revisions to coarse grain production for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries account for much of the change in world production this month. Notable changes, however, are made for several major producing and exporting countries.
Global corn production is raised 6.4 million tons with a 2.0-million-ton increase for Brazil and 1.0-million-ton increases each for South Africa and Russia. For Brazil, favorable precipitation in March and early April has supported the developing safrinha corn crop with yields now expected just below last year’s levels in the areas where this second-season corn crop is grown. For South Africa, improved rains in late February and March have boosted yield prospects for corn grown in the normally lower-yielding western areas. Corn production is raised for Russia based on recent revisions to official production statistics. Corn production is also raised 0.2 million tons for Mexico, in line with the latest government estimates. Global sorghum production is lowered 1.1 million tons mostly on changes to the Sub-Saharan Africa countries, but production is also lowered 0.4 million tons for Argentina and raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil. Global barley production is lowered with a 0.8-million-ton reduction for China. Global millet production is reduced 1.7 million tons with more than half of the decline for India.
Global coarse grain trade for 2013/14 is raised with higher corn and sorghum imports. Corn imports are increased for the European Union, Algeria, Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam. In addition to the United States, corn exports are increased for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Russia, and Vietnam. Sorghum imports are raised for China. Global corn consumption is higher with increases in feeding for Argentina, Russia, and Algeria. A reduction in European Union corn feeding is more than offset by an increase in food, seed, and industrial use. Corn use is also raised for several of the Sub-Saharan Africa countries led by increases of 1.0 million tons for Uganda and 0.9 million tons for Ethiopia. World corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are lowered 0.5 million tons with reductions for the United States and Ukraine outweighing increases for Brazil, Russia, and several other countries.