The 2011/12 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks this month. Production is reduced 308,000 bales due to decreases in Texas and the Southeast. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but exports are reduced 200,000 bales. Ending stocks are lowered to 3.8 million bales, representing a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent. The forecast marketing-year average price received by producers of 84 to 96 cents per pound is reduced 3.5 cents on the lower end and 6.5 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting recent market trends.
The 2011/12 world cotton forecasts include higher beginning stocks offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are raised due mainly to adjustments in Turkmenistan for prior years. World production is lowered slightly, as reductions for the United States and Argentina more than offset an increase for Turkey. World consumption and trade are reduced marginally, with world ending stocks virtually unchanged.