WASDE: U.S. Rice Production Forecast Down 10.5 Mil.

September 11, 2014 06:10 AM
WASDE: U.S. Rice Production Forecast Down 10.5 Mil.

RICE: U.S. 2014/15 rice supplies are lowered 11.5 million cwt because of declines in both beginning stocks and production, while imports are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. rice production for 2014/15 is forecast at 218.3 million cwt, down 10.5 million from last month due both to a decrease in area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.91 million acres, down 116,000 from last month. Harvested area estimates are lowered for Arkansas and California; raised in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and unchanged in Missouri. Medium-grain harvested area in California is lowered 65,000 acres to 390,000 acres, down 120,000 acres from last year. The average all rice yield is estimated at 7,501 pounds per acre, down 59 pounds per acre from last month, with decreases in Louisiana, Missouri, and Texas, partially offset by an increase in California. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 158.3 million cwt, down 11.1 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 60.0 million cwt, up 0.6 million. All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.9 million cwt from last month to 31.8 million (rough equivalent basis) based on USDA’s August Rice Stocks report. All rice 2014/15 domestic consumption and residual is lowered 3.0 million cwt to 131.0 million due mainly to lower supplies. Exports are forecast at 102.0 million cwt, down 7 million from last month. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.5 million cwt to 38.1 million.

All rice domestic and residual use for 2013/14 is raised 1.9 million cwt to 124.9 million, up 5.3 percent from 2012/13 based mostly on the ending stocks data. The 2013/14 export projection is lowered 0.8 million cwt to 92.7 million based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the full marketing year.

The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.50 to $13.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $15.40 per cwt for 2013/14. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.25 to $18.25 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to a revised $18.50 per cwt for 2013/14. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.90 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt from a month ago compared to $16.10 per cwt for 2013/14.

Projected global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are reduced slightly on lower supplies. Global rice production is projected at a record 477.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for North and South Korea and the United States. Global beginning stocks are lowered slightly, due mostly to a reduction in Thailand. The Thailand 2013/14 export forecast is raised 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million. Global 2014/15 rice consumption is lowered a little from last month. Global exports are lowered slightly from a month ago on a decrease for the United States, which is partially offset by increases for Australia and Guyana. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at 105.1 million tons, down 268,000 tons from last month, and a decline of 4.8 million from the previous year. Ending stocks are lowered for Thailand, South Korea, and the United States and raised for Australia, Guyana, and India.


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