WASDE: Wheat Exports Continue Higher

March 9, 2012 01:35 AM

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 20 million bushels lower this month as lower food use is more than offset by higher exports. Projected food use is lowered
5 million bushels reflecting the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association. Exports are projected 25 million bushels higher based on shipments and sales to date. Projected exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat are each raised 10 million bushels. Projected Durum exports are raised 5 million bushels. Prices received by producers for the 2011/12 marketing year are projected at $7.15 to $7.45 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are nearly unchanged with lower China and Bangladesh beginning stocks offsetting higher production for Australia. Beginning stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons for China with an increase in food, seed, and industrial use for 2010/11. Australia production for 2011/12 is raised 1.2 million tons in line with the latest official estimate by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Global wheat trade is raised for 2011/12 with higher imports for a number of countries. The biggest increase is for Iran, up 0.8 million tons, reflecting recent purchases and expected
deliveries before the end of the local April-March marketing year. Imports are raised 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, South Korea, and Uzbekistan. Smaller increases are made for Azerbaijan, Chile, Georgia, and Angola. Imports are lowered 0.2 million tons for Syria. The largest export increase is for the United States. Exports are also increased for Australia,
Brazil, and Kazakhstan, each up 0.5 million tons. Smaller increases are made for Turkey and Serbia. At the projected 142.9 million tons, global exports are just 0.6 million tons short of the 2008/09 record.

Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 3.5 million tons mostly on higher food, seed, and industrial use in China and higher wheat feeding in Australia, Iran, and South Korea. Partly offsetting are reductions in EU-27 wheat feeding and food, seed, and industrial use. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 3.5 million tons lower, mostly reflecting a similar sized reduction for China. EU-27 ending stocks are projected 1.5 million tons higher, but changes in a number of other countries, including the United States, offset the EU-27 increase

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