WASDE: Wheat Slightly Lower

April 8, 2011 02:54 AM

WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected slightly lower this month reflecting a small increase in seed use. Higher planted area as reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings raises projected seed use 4 million bushels. Small by-class changes are made for imports with Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat raised 5 million bushels and Hard Red Spring and durum wheat together lowered an offsetting amount. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected 10 cents lower on each end of the range at $5.50 to $5.70 per bushel. Farm prices continue to be reported well below prevailing cash market bids indicating that farmers priced a substantial portion of this year’s crop well ahead of delivery.

Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are nearly unchanged as higher beginning stocks are mostly offset by lower world production. Production is lowered 1.3 million tons for Egypt as the latest reports indicate a sharp year-to-year drop in yields as unusual, early season heat affected pollination and reduced grain size. Production is raised 1.1 million tons for Iran on higher area.
Global wheat trade is projected higher with imports raised for Turkey, Indonesia, Morocco, Yemen, Egypt, and Peru. Lower expected imports for Syria and Afghanistan are partly offsetting. Global exports are raised 1.1 million tons with 1.0-million-ton increases for both Australia and EU-27, and a 0.6-million-ton increase for Brazil. Exports are lowered 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine, 0.4 million tons for Pakistan, and 0.3 million tons for Mexico.

Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is lowered 0.8 million tons reflecting small reductions in food, seed, and industrial use in a number of countries. Changes in wheat feeding are mostly offsetting with China raised 1.0 million tons and Pakistan and Egypt lowered 0.6 million and 0.4 million tons, respectively. Global ending stocks are projected 0.9 million tons higher.

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