WASDE: Wheat Stocks Rise on Lowered Exports

June 12, 2013 06:08 AM
WASDE: Wheat Stocks Rise on Lowered Exports

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised this month with an increase in beginning stocks and higher forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are higher with a 15-million-bushel reduction in 2012/13 exports as May shipments fell below expectations. Projected production for 2013/14 is up 23 million bushels as higher yields boost forecast production of Hard Red Winter wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and Soft Red Winter wheat across the South and Midwest. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher for 2013/14 with strong early season sales and a reduced outlook for foreign production this month. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected down 11 million bushels. Projected stocks of 659 million bushels remain at a 5-year low. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $6.25 to $7.55 per bushel. This is down from the record $7.80 per bushel expected for 2012/13.

Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 are lowered 5.6 million tons reflecting lower foreign production. World production is projected at 695.9 million tons, down 5.2 million from last month with reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and EU-27. Persistent dry weather in key growing areas of southeastern Ukraine and adjoining areas of southern Russia reduces production prospects 2.5 million tons and 2.0 million tons, respectively. EU-27 production is lowered 1.3 million tons with small reductions in a number of member countries.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is reduced slightly with reductions in feed and residual use for EU-27, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting higher expected food use for India, Iran, and Egypt. Global wheat trade is raised with imports increased 1.0 million tons for Iran. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in imports for EU-27 with lower exportable supplies in Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia exports are lowered 1.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Export increases of 1.5 million tons for EU-27 and 0.5 million tons for Canada, combine with the U.S. increase this month to raise global exports 0.8 million tons. World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 181.3 million tons, down 5.1 million from last month, and just above the level projected for 2012/13.




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