WASDE: Wheat Supplies, Production Forecast Raised

August 10, 2012 02:35 AM

WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 54 million bushels with higher forecast production and an increase in projected imports. Production is forecast 44 million bushels higher with increased yields for winter wheat, durum, and other spring wheat. Feed and residual use is projected 20 million bushels higher, reflecting the tighter supply situation for corn. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 34 million bushels higher.

The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is raised substantially to $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, compared with $6.20 to $7.40 per bushel last month, as tighter foreign wheat supplies and sharply higher corn prices raise price prospects for the remainder of the marketing year.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 2.1 million tons lower mostly reflecting a 3.7-million-ton reduction in foreign production. A small increase in 2012/13 world beginning stocks is partly offsetting with 2011/12 updates to trade and use for a number of countries.

Lower expected production in the FSU-12 accounts for most of this month’s decline in world output. Production is lowered 6.0 million tons for Russia on reduced area and yield prospects due to July heat and dryness across most of the spring wheat growing areas. Spring wheat in adjoining areas of Kazakhstan was also affected by the same adverse weather reducing production prospects 2.0 million tons.

Other reductions this month include a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Turkey based on lower reported yields, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina reflecting lower expected area, a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Syria, and a 0.2-million-ton reduction for EU-27. Production is raised 2.9 million tons for India, 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.4 million tons each for Canada and Uzbekistan.

Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is raised 3.2 million tons as a number of countries are expected to shift some of their livestock and poultry feeding from corn to wheat. Wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Ukraine, 0.5 million tons each for South Korea and Vietnam, 0.3 million tons for Israel, and 0.2 million tons each for India and Thailand. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Russia with lower expected production.

Global wheat imports for 2012/13 are raised with increases for several countries, in part, to support higher wheat feeding. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons each for EU-27, South Korea, and Vietnam, and raised 0.3 million tons for Israel. Imports are also raised 0.3 million tons for Brazil.

Global 2012/13 exports are raised, but much of the shift among countries also reflects reduced export prospects for Russia, which is lowered 4.0 million tons. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine, 1.0 million tons each for Canada and EU-27, 0.5 million tons each for Australia, Brazil, and Pakistan. Exports are lowered 0.7 million tons for Argentina, 0.5 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons for Uruguay. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 5.3 million tons lower at 177.2 million.


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