WASDE: World Wheat Production Could Soar to 720 Million Tons

September 11, 2014 06:10 AM
WASDE: World Wheat Production Could Soar to 720 Million Tons

WHEAT:  Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected imports of Hard Red Spring (HRS) from Canada.  This reflects higher stocks in Canada as well as the strong shipment pace to date.  Domestic use is unchanged, but exports are lowered 25 million bushels with larger global wheat supplies and increased competition.  Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports are lowered 15 million bushels due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date.  HRS wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels with increased competition expected from Canada.  A 5-million-bushel increase in Soft Red Winter wheat exports is offset by a 5-million-bushel reduction for White wheat.  Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels.  The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $5.50 to $6.30 per bushel.  

Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 6.6 million tons with increases in both beginning stocks and production.  Beginning stocks are up 2.8 million tons led by a 2-million-ton increase for China.  The China increase reflects a 2013/14 reduction in wheat feeding; however, wheat feeding is raised for 2014/15.  Both changes are made to better reflect relative prices for wheat and corn in China since summer 2013.  Canada beginning stocks are up 0.8 million tons reflecting the latest stocks estimate from Statistics Canada.  World production is raised 3.9 million tons to a record 720.0 million.  The largest production increases are for EU and Ukraine, up 3.1 million tons and 2.0 million tons, respectively.  Both changes reflect updated government data.  Australia production is down 0.5 million tons reflecting persistent dryness in the northeastern growing areas and developing dryness in the more important western and southeastern growing regions.  Other major production changes include a 0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco and a 1-million-ton reduction for Algeria.

Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 3.2 million tons mostly reflecting the higher feed use expected for China.  Wheat feeding is also raised 0.5 million tons for Iran.  Global wheat trade is raised with the largest import increases for Algeria, Pakistan, and Iran.  Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Canada, EU, and Ukraine all due to larger supplies.  Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Brazil and Kazakhstan also because of large supplies.  Despite record projected consumption, global wheat supplies rise faster than use, boosting ending stocks 3.4 million tons to 196.4 million.



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