Weaker Dollar Spurs Short-Covering in Grains

April 11, 2012 01:31 AM

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Overnight highlights. Following are highlights of overnight trade:

Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher. Futures benefited from short-covering overnight, as well as from weakness in the U.S. dollar index. Futures posted sharp losses yesterday in reaction to USDA's steady carryover figure, but traders realize if prices return to March lows, demand will increase -- raising the threat of even tighter old-crop supplies. Cold temps across the Midwest were also supportive overnight, as it's slowing early planting progress.

Soybeans: Mixed. Futures are firming late on help from dollar weakness. Soybeans slipped late yesterday and are now pivoting around unchanged -- remaining within the boundaries of the uptrending channel. Yesterday's S&D Report showed carryover about as expected, but the prospects of steady to lower acreage this spring reminds the market of the likelihood of continued tight carryover in the year ahead.

Wheat: 5 to 8 cents lower. Futures saw short-covering overnight following yesterday's double-digit losses at all three exchanges. Help is also coming from dollar weakness. But the prospect of burdensome carryover resulted in a sell-the-fact reaction yesterday, especially with the winter wheat crop off to a solid start.

Live cattle: Mixed. Futures are due for a corrective bounce due to the oversold condition of the market, but attitudes are bearish. Cash cattle trade began at $120 yesterday, which is $1 below the lower end of last week's trading range. But with nearbys holding a discount to the cash index, pressure should be limited. Meanwhile, the beef market was mixed yesterday, but movement improved to 258 loads -- signaling current prices are a "value."

Lean Hogs: Mixed. Futures are expected to be mixed today, with upside potential limited to short-covering given pressure on the pork cutout market. Pork values slipped 52 cents yesterday, but movement improved to 111 loads changing hands. Packers' profit margins remain in the red, but have improved. But given negative margins, demand for hogs is lackluster.


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