For all the discussion surrounding Tuesday’s Prospective Plantings report from USDA, the market quickly will return to focusing on weather factors, predicts Jim Bower, Bower Trading. That’s particularly true in light of soggy conditions in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, where some farmers say they might end up planting more soybeans because of wet fields.
“Keep in mind a half-hour after the release of the numbers by the USDA, most likely the market’s going to quickly return to weather factors, particularly looking at the western Corn Belt, which has been drier compared to the eastern Corn Belt and then just see what the extended models have to say,” Jim Bower of Bower Trading tells the “U.S. Farm Report” Marketing Roundtable. “Because remember, last year we lost 1.1 million acres of corn from after the report and we gained 2.2 million acres. It’s subject to change.”
Analysts Preview the 2015 Prospective Plantings Report
The trade expects 88.7 million corn acres, down from 2014 figures, and 85.9 million soybean acres, though at this point final totals are anyone’s guess.
“I’m in the camp that the combination of corn and bean acres will be up versus a year ago,” trader Gregg Hunt explains. “I think the weather’s going to have to play out. The reason why I’m coming to that conclusion is regardless of what the USDA said back in February, you’ve got 1.5 million acres or 1 million acres less of cotton. It’s either going to go into sorghum or soybeans. You’re going to have 1 million wheat acres most likely going to be a mix of corn and soybeans, heavier on the soybeans side. Then you’ve got CRP acres that came out, about 1.5 million. From my point of view, if weather and we don’t have this bogdown [in the] Southeast, put that on the side a minute, we had 4.7 million acres that went to prevent plant.”
Don’t ignore Tuesday’s stocks report, either, Bower adds.
“We don’t just want to put the total focus on the report just on acreage,” he advises. “Let’s watch this stocks number pretty carefully, particularly new-crop soybeans.”