On the heels of this past week’s 2015 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour, farmers are asking: Will impressive corn production in the western Corn Belt offset losses caused by excessive rain in the eastern Corn Belt?
The answer is no, says Pro Farmer editor Brian Grete on “AgDay.”
“It may be well short of doing it when all’s said and done because we’re not going to know the final answer here until combines start to roll this fall,” Grete tells Pro Farmer editorial director Chip Flory. “Then it may take a long time to sort out even after that.”
Pro Farmer’s estimate for national corn yield is 164.3 bu. per acre, well below USDA’s projected 168.8 bu. per acre. Meanwhile, Pro Farmer expects production of 13.323 billion bushels, below USDA’s projection of 13.7 billion bushels. That could mean tighter carryover and the possibility corn prices will rally.
But there’s a catch.
“I just don’t know if there’s sustained rally potential in the marketplace,” Grete cautions. “As prices go up, that has a tendency to choke off demand, especially on the corn side of things, so that’s going to be the key. It may give us some up and down price movement.”
Meanwhile, Pro Farmer’s estimate for soybean yield is 46.5 bu. per acre with production of 3.887 billion bushels. The yield is just beneath USDA’s projection of 46.9 bu. per acre.
“It’s because of all the pods and all the water,” Flory explains. “That’s going to be adding to an already big carryover.”
Chinese demand is lagging, so it’s unclear what factors might transpire to push soybean prices higher.
“They have backed off significantly, down about 67% from where they were last year at this point in time for new-crop bookings,” Grete says. “If the Chinese don’t aggressively come to market here as we get the new-crop harvest off, then we’re sitting in a situation of what’s going to rally the marketplace?”
Click the play button below to watch the complete interview with Grete and Flory on "AgDay."