USDA released its latest Grain Stocks report, including some significant shifts to old crop wheat and grain sorghum, with smaller movements for corn and soybean. What did this latest report reveal?
For corn, USDA reports stocks in all positions as of September 1, 2016, totaled 1.74 billion bushels. This is up slightly from the same date in 2015. On-farm storage (627 million bushels) is 6% higher than 2015, but off-farm stocks (1.11 billion bushels) are down 2%.
For soybeans, all old crop storage totaled 197 million bushels. This is 3% higher than a year ago. On-farm storage (41.6 million bushels) is down 16%, and off-farm storage (155 million bushels) is up 10%.
On-farm and off-farm storage of wheat is up significantly from 2015 – a 21% total boost. Barley stocks are up 5%, while oat stocks are down 16%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Sept. 1 corn stocks to come in at 1.754 billion bushels, soybeans at 200 million bushels and wheat stocks at 2.438 million bushels.
The biggest changes seen in the September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report were seen for old crop sunflower and grain sorghum crops. Sunflower stocks have shot up 74% from last year, while grain sorghum stocks have risen 99% year-over-year.
Earlier this morning, hip Nellinger, co-owner of Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc., gave his initial reaction to the Grain Stocks report to AgDay’s Tyne Morgan.
Meantime, according to a recent Farm Journal Pulse poll, farmers intend to put a significant portion of their 2016 grain into storage as well. According to more than 1,200 respondents, 18% of them will store all of their crops on-farm after this year’s harvest. And about half of respondents will store at least 50% of their crop.
Asked the same question in 2013, farmers yielded similar storage intentions.
“I cannot say that I’m extremely surprised by the responses of this poll,” says Ted Seifried, chief marketing strategist with Zaner Ag Hedge. “With prices as low as they are, we expect producers to try to store as much of this crop as possible. At the same time, we know that with likely record corn and soybean crops, we will not be able to store all of it, and many producers may need cash flow.”
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