What the Trade Expects in Supply/Demand

April 8, 2015 10:11 AM
What the Trade Expects in Supply/Demand

With USDA releasing its April supply/demand estimates Thursday morning, trade estimates are in the wind this week. Here are the numbers for U.S. ending stocks in a recent Bloomberg survey. On average, analysts expect USDA to raise corn ending stocks by 80 million and wheat ending stocks by 3 million and reduce soybean ending stocks by 16 million. For corn and beans, that’s more than a 4% change. Notice the survey range encompasses the actual March estimate, so it would take an unusual move on USDA’s part to fall outside the range.


Looking at world ending stocks, trade estimates average an increase of 1.6 MMT in corn but little change in soybean or wheat stocks. Keep in mind that in March, USDA reduced global corn ending stocks from February’s 189.64 to 185.28 MMT as it reduced South Africa’s crop from 13.5 to 11.5 MMT due to drought.

Word on the South American harvest season is very positive, but trade estimates show expectations for no changes or only minor ones from the March estimates of Argentina, corn: 23.5 MMT; Argentina, soybeans: 56.0; Brazil, corn: 75; Brazil, soybeans: 94.5 MMT.


For video commentary from Cody Bills at Grain Hedge on the upcoming report see WASDE Expectations.  



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