What's Going on With World Corn Stocks?

November 7, 2018 02:16 PM
 
 

In it's November World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report one of the biggest surprises coming in adjustments to Chinese corn stocks. USDA adjusting its numbers for production and domestic consumption of corn in China. That meant boosting world stocks by 159 million metric tons from the previous month to 307 million metric tons. 

Analysts and traders like Bill Biederman of Allendale reacting to the supply number early during the trading session Thursday. 

"Does the market trade to zero because we don't need to produce a corn crop in the next year," Biedermann is asking facetiously. "We have 5.8 billion bushels more and does the market look at it and say these revisions go back many years so we've been trading these stocks for a long time."

He says if you look at the revisions there's still at 10 percent drop in world stocks from last year. Biedermann says we are still consuming more than we're producing in the world.

Hear all of Bill's comments in the video above.

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Comments

 
Spell Check

kerrlee
Scottsboro, AL
11/8/2018 07:06 PM
 

  Well, have you considered the possibility, and I'm not being facetious, that analytics are part of modelling used to attempt to predict the price. Analytics and their data do not set the price. If you change the data, it does not change the market response to supply and demand. It changes how well the model fits. This is true for data in the past as well projections into the future. If you have better data now, you should be able to get at least as good a fit with your model or a new model. The market is always right -- as far as anybody knows.

 
 

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