March wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade last Friday hit a fresh contract low of $4.71 a bushel. Price action last week also saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels on the daily chart. This week, the market has seen a pause, which is not bullish. Bears do still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
March wheat futures remain in an eight-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart, from the mid-March contract and all-time high of $12.75 a bushel.
A close in March wheat below strong technical support at the contract low of $4.71 would produce more serious chart damage and would open the door to a quick move down to technical support at $4.50 a bushel. A price move below $4.50 would find the next downside technical objective being major psychological support at $4.00.
For the wheat market bulls to begin to regain some fresh upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that a major market low is in place, they would have to produce a close above solid overhead technical resistance at $5.50 a bushel, basis the March contract.
Near-term technical resistance for March Chicago wheat is located at $5.00, at the October low of $5.18 and then at $5.25. Technical support is located at Wednesday's low of $4.88, at $4.75 and then at the contract low of $4.71.