Wheat Futures Still Trapped in a Downtrend

July 16, 2008 07:00 PM
  December soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday saw a corrective short covering bounce after hitting a fresh five-week low early in the session. However, prices are still trapped in a steep three-week-old downtrend from the June high of $9.94 3/4 and the bears do still have the near-term technical advantage.
    For the Chicago wheat bulls to gain fresh upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that prices can trend sideways to higher, they would have to produce a close above solid overhead technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. Below that does lie resistance at $8.70 and then at $8.83 1/2, basis December futures.
    The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close below strong near-term chart support at this week's low of $8.20 1/4. A close below that support level would produce some fresh near-term technical damage to suggest a challenge of psychological support at $8.00 a bushel, or below.
    "Seasonality" studies for wheat futures prices do show the market tending to trend higher from the June timeframe into the December timeframe.

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