Why "Experts" Got It Wrong In 2016

December 22, 2016 01:10 PM
Why "Experts" Got It Wrong In 2016

2016 was a wild ride in commodity prices.  Tommy Grisafi of Advance Trading says it was also a year of audacious forecasts, some of which dictated marketing plans on farms.  That trend started in January when a weather expert called for $6.50 corn by the summer based on calls for a widespread drought.

“It was a year famous for people making bold predictions and kind of landing flat on their face,” said Grisafi on U.S. Farm Report. “With the drought, the weather guys predicted 30 of the last two droughts. We had Brexit. Everyone was sure Britain was going to stay; they left. And what can I say about our election that it left many people speechless.”

He says 2016 didn’t play out as many expected, but it’s a year from which everyone can learn. Grisafi says the first lesson is that bold predictions aren’t always right, proving even the “experts” get it wrong.

“Try not to be an expert, manage your rest take a pencil to your farm’s numbers and define what your risk is for 2017,” said Grisafi.

“I think Tommy makes an excellent point,” said Craig VanDyke of Top Third Ag.  “If the markets provide you an opportunity, start to take advantage of it.”

VanDyke says you can analyze the market and try to predict where prices are heading, but that’s not the most reliable plan.

“At the end of the day, prices are going to move and things are going to happen, and as we wrap up 2016, a lot can happen from now until next harvest, as a lot is happening currently,” said VanDyke. “Keep up with it right now, and take advantage when the market lets you have it.” 

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