Why Soybeans Jumped 26 Cents Today

November 21, 2016 03:12 PM
Why Soybeans Jumped 26 Cents Today

January soybean prices soared 26 2/5 cents Monday, lifted by a weaker dollar and strong exports, to close at $10.20 1/5.  December corn rose 4 1/5 cents, closing at $3.49 3/5.

A rebounding oil market also boosted soybeans on the fist day of this shortened holiday trading week, according to analysts.

“A stalled run in the dollar has given ease to the headwinds that crippled soybean movement in the last week,” says Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, in Platteville, Wis.

“The ripple effect from a rebounding oil market helped us to drive prices back to the very price levels that have been difficult to penetrate in recent weeks,” North adds, noting that holiday markets “can often lead to great opportunity or great disappointment.”

Strong exports have captured the "hearts and minds" of traders, according to North, who says this is not ordinary at this point in the calendar year.

Last week, USDA reported soybean net sales of 1.4 MMT for 2016/17, a 51% over the previous week, but down 23% from the prior 4-week average. Unlike soybeans, despite strong exports “the corn market has been unable to rally,” notes Joe Vaclavik, president and founder of Standard Grain in Chicago, Ill.

USDA last week reported net corn sales of 1.7 MMT, for 2016/17, up 35% from the previous week

“Similar to the soybean market, we’re going to need a South American weather issue to sustain a rally in the corn market,” Vaclavik says.

CBOT December wheat went up 2 1/5 cents, closing at $4.10 1/5.

“In wheat, we continue to chop sideways, stuck in the middle of what has become a multi-month trading range,” Vaclavik says.

U.S. ending stocks of wheat are expected to hit a 29-year high at the end of the 2016/17 marketing year, with world ending stocks that are also currently high, he says.

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