Will 2016 Bring a Record Growing Season? (VIDEO)

January 21, 2016 02:30 PM
Corn Sky Field

The markets hinge on weather. Depending on rain, drought, temperatures, sunshine and more, farmers could grow another record crop in 2016 or yields could be dismal. Which will it be? 

To get a hint of what is to come, Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge suggests turning the calendar back a few months and then a few years. 

“Although we don’t trust long-term forecasts very well,” he said on AgDay with host Clinton Griffiths. “There’s a lot we can take from the fall and compare to previous years.”

For example, near-record levels of precipitation fell between Nov. 1, 2015 and Dec. 31, 2015. Memorable crop years such 1988 and 2012 had similarly heavy amounts of moisture--with unfortunate effects on production. “Of the nine wettest Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 (periods), six of (those years had crop production that) fell below trendline yield,” Seifried says.  

This December's record-warm temperatures also recall the weather of fall 2011 and winter 2012,  according to Seifried. He says the pushes of warm air represent the end of an El Nino and warns there’s possibility of a strong La Nina this summer.

Watch the full interview below:

Seifried admits it’s early to speculate on the weather, but he thinks it’s also too soon to assume farmers will have a near-perfect growing season and record yields.

“I think the market should start to factor in some risk for this growing season,” he says.

Do you remember any years fall/winter periods with similar weather trends as what we are experiencing now? What happened to yields in your area that year? Let us know in comments. 



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Spell Check

Lafayette, MN
1/22/2016 07:33 AM

  Everyone plant as much corn and soybeans as you can. Even in states where you only get a 130bpa (how dumb) so that we do get a good growing season and have $1.80 corn and $5 beans.

Elmwood, IL
1/22/2016 07:38 AM

  The winter of 1982 was very warm followed by a hot and dry 1983. That was the PIK year so grain production(primarily corn but beans too) was limited with resulting significantly higher prices. Very good prices came at harvest time.


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