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Will ASF Alone Boost U.S. soybean prices? Analyst Says Look At Brazil.

14:28PM Aug 23, 2019
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The soybean had another down day Friday in to the close. It still leaves soybean prices hovering in the $8 mark for most contracts.

Producers are looking at African Swine Fever challenges in China in hopes it will create a boost in soybean prices. However, Pete Meyer, Head of Grains and Oilseed Analytics with S&P Global Platts says to also look at Brazil.

“There’s no question in my mind, soybean production is going to be a shocker,” said Meyer. “I think a lot of it depends if Brazil can run out before the end of the year. We think they can run out.”

Meyer feels the U.S. could be a secondary supplier for China due to the trade.

“[China] is going to go to Brazil first with these tariffs in place by the Trump Administration,” said Meyer. “So, we have to kind of look at that.”

He says the biggest factor is how big the Brazilian crop will be as well.

“To get that big ‘umph’ for beans to go back to $10 or something like that, it’s going to need a failure in Brazil or South America or some dramatic changes government-wise in South America to make that happen.”

Meyer says he’s going to watch the value of Brazil’s currency too. Click on the link to watch more.

Soybeans, Markets and Crop Tour 082319