Will Last Week’s Weather Mean Record Planting Progress Numbers Today?

May 4, 2015 12:20 PM
Will Last Week’s Weather Mean Record Planting Progress Numbers Today?

If you thought last Monday brought strong planting progress numbers, you’ll want to keep an eye on the USDA today. (The agency releases the latest stats here at 4 p.m. Eastern.)

 “It’s been a pretty fantastic week for many. It could be a record week,” said Bryan Doherty, a senior market advisor at Stewart-Peterson, on U.S. Farm Report Saturday. In 2013, “we saw 40 percent planted in one week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that.”

Combine those previous figures with last week’s activity in the field, and you could end up with some big planting numbers. “I think we’re at over 50 percent (and) probably pushing 60 percent,” Doherty said. “It’s good in the west, and they’re going wide open. The biggest issue is just logistics--getting the fertilizer and equipment moved around fast enough.”

Listen to Doherty's discussion with Tyne Morgan and Kevin Duling of KD Investors here:

Many market watchers expect there could be some big numbers today.

“There seems to be more talk that corn planted acreage could be as high as 50 percent to 55 percent with beans 15 percent or higher on the progress report this afternoon,” predicted Allendale’s Paul Georgy. “ …. Weather across the Corn Belt was excellent for planting in most areas, and many of our clients are saying they are finished planting corn and already working on soybeans.”

That’s the case for Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group, who marveled last week at how cooperative the weather has been this spring, allowing him to finish up his corn planting before this week’s expected rain.

The same goes for many AgWeb readers, judging from their observations recently on the Crop Comments section.

  • 5/4/2015 Hamilton County, NE: Corn planting done. Bean planting almost complete. April 15 corn up and looks excellent.
  • 5/2/2015 Nemaha County, KS: Corn is 95% planted, soybeans are getting a fast start (with) 10% planted already.
  • 5/1/2015 Murray County, MN: As of May 1, I would have to say 90% of the corn is planted, and a lot of people are going on their beans now.

How will the market respond to such dramatic planting progress? On U.S. Farm Report, Kevin Duling of KD Investors suggested the market has already accounted for that expected negative pressure of strong planting and the prospect of another big crop.

“I think that’s what the market is pricing in,” said Duling, who thinks the bearish concerns might cause prices to “drift down” to $3.50 for corn and $9.50 for soybeans. “To me, it comes down to how low does it go before the importers and the end users say, ‘OK, there’s not much risk to the downside—let’s start covering things head of the growing season.’”

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Spell Check

Wayne A. Blake
Alexandria, IN
5/4/2015 06:53 PM

  Well, That;s nice for those further west. What about further east?


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