On Friday, June 30, USDA will release its much-anticipated Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. What surprises could this round of reports hold? While market analysts aren’t expecting great shifts from the March 31 acreage estimates, the June 30 reports typically cause market excitement.
“Corn and soybeans should be close to acreage expectations,” says Katie Hancock, Brock Associates marketing consultant. She’s estimating around 89.5 million acres for each.
Meantime, Allendale’s predictions call for 90.018 million acres of corn and 89.940 million acres of soybeans—both of which are slightly higher than USDA’s March Planting Intentions estimates.
Prospective Plantings Predictions (in million acres)
“We are calling for marginal increase in corn acres,” says Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist. “There’s a clear bias toward higher soybean acres in the June report, regardless of how corn acres are increased or decreased.”
While soybean looked liked the most economical crop for soybeans to plant earlier this year, those economics have swung the other way, Nelson says. “That’s why we have only a moderate increase in soybean acres,” he says.
Hancock says she’s not expecting dramatic acreage shifts in a particular state, but overall crops do appear to be better in the western Corn Belt than the eastern.
“There are states like the Dakotas that have issues, but it’s easy to get caught up in the extremes rather than the average,” she says. “My area of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee look good besides preventive plant and damage along the Mississippi River. With the late crop I saw driving up through Illinois and Indiana this week, I think it’s even more difficult than usual to predict final yield right now. I could see farmers had torn up early corn and started over. There isn’t any patience for mediocre fields these days.”
How will the markets likely react on Friday?
“I don’t look for the acreage side to be any big market move,” Nelson says. “Typically stocks is where the market gets price reaction.”
Hancock agrees. “Grain stocks will be worth watching and feed usage,” she says. “It’s hard to know much about yield now, but how much grain is available is the key to watch. We’ve been stuck in a sideways trading range—especially in corn. That being said, a neutral report could be supportive.”
Nelson says in 11 of the last 15 years, corn has had a negative price reaction from this June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. Soybeans is a bit more balanced. In seven years of the last 15 years, soybean prices jumped and in the other eight years they dropped. Wheat prices tend to have a negative price reaction, with nine of the last 15 years, prices dropping after the report.
Read The Allendale Wake-Up Call, Allendale's blog on AgWeb.
Read Family Farming-Katie Style, Katie Hancock's blog on AgWeb.