Will USDA Raise Yield Forecasts?

July 20, 2016 11:20 AM

As most of the Corn Belt comes out of pollination, it looks like much of this year's corn crop may have escaped the extreme heat that the market and farmers feared.  

According to USDA's Crop Progress report released Monday, crop conditions for both corn and soybean crops are looking good. Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain says that could point to bigger yields in 2016 than farmers saw last year.

"The big difference between this year and last year is what's going on in the eastern Corn Belt,” Vaclavik explains. “The [crop condition] ratings are sharply higher in places like Illinois, Indiana and into Ohio for both corn and soybeans.”

Vaclavik says crop conditions are 20% to 30% better in the good-to-excellent category in some of those states than they were last year, which could lead to a bumper crop.

“Last year, we had a corn yield of 168.4 (bushels per acre) and (soybean yield) of 48 bushels per acre,” he says. “You've got to assume at this point that we could be looking at some numbers even higher than those numbers based on crop ratings.”

He says a lot of analysts are starting to think USDA will likely raise yield forecasts in its August 12 report.

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Spell Check

Auburn, IN
7/21/2016 06:42 PM

  Pollination hasn't even started on most corn here yet

Alamo, TN
7/20/2016 06:43 PM

  August can be a long month. Pollination benchmark is a hurdle. Got to put weight in those kernels. More hurdles to go. Good luck everybody.

Boone, IA
7/20/2016 07:18 PM

  We were blessed with 7 inches of rain in 8 days this July. We have the potential for a very large crop as the corn looks awesome even in the heat. Pollination is mostly over with a lot of brown silk now. More chances of rain next week. A little bit of rain in August and our very good yields of 15 can be beat. ,


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