For 2017, economists at the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) forecast a national average corn price of $3.60 and a national average soybean price of $9.57.
Large supplies of grain have pushed prices down over the last few years. Since the 2012 drought, world average yields for grains and oilseeds have exceeded the long-term trend for four straight years, the FAPRI economists report in their March 2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book.
In 2016, world production exceeded the 2010-2012 average by 20% for corn and 31% for soybeans. Consumption has also increased, but by a slightly smaller proportion.
“Profitability is going to be tight, particularly for grain producers,” predicts Jackson Takach, Farmer Mac economist.
For 2017, FAPRI predicts the national average farm price will vary greatly when it comes to cash crop prices farmers receive.
The cash price basis to national average is driven by local market forces such as the presence of feed or ethanol processors, as well as macro factors such as distance to ports and transportation costs, Takach and fellow Farmer Mac economist Ryan Kuhns report in the Spring 2017 edition of The Feed, Farmer Mac’s quarterly report on agriculture.
How will your cash prices vary from FAPRI’s expected national average? Using 20 years of surveyed cash prices, the maps below use the average cash price basis by state for corn and soybeans to plot the expected cash crop prices using FAPRI’s forecasted national prices.
Projected 2017/2018 Cash Corn Prices
Click on any state to see the 2017/2018 projected corn price for that state. (Christopher Walljasper/Farm Journal Media)
Projected 2017/2018 Cash Soybean Prices
Click on any state to see the 2017/2018 projected soybean price for that state. (Christopher Walljasper/Farm Journal Media)
Growers in the upper Corn Belt face the steepest cash price basis levels for both corn and soybeans, whereas producers in the West, South, and East tend to fetch a positive basis on their crops. These regional variances are relatively stable through time, according to Takach and Kuhns.
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