Will NASS Resurvey Some States for Acreage Changes for August?

June 27, 2013 07:56 AM
 
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via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Agency to make the call after analyzing the June Acreage data

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


This spring’s weather that has kept planting of US corn and soybeans at their slowest pace in years has prompted questions on whether the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) will opt to do another special survey of plantings in some key states where the delays have been significant.

The answer to that question so far is that it is not yet decided. Any decision on whether to conduct any special update on planted acreage will depend in part on what agency statisticians find as they analyze the data to be released on Friday, June 28.

The conditions that have led to slow corn and soybean plantings are not the only factors at play, according to contacts.

While the sequester reductions do not prevent a resurvey from being done, contacts advise any decision has to be made with the backdrop of the agency having a limited amount of funding due to the spending reductions. That means there needs to be a convincing case presented by the June Acreage data to prompt the agency to undertake the extra survey work.

And updates after the June Acreage report are not unusual:

In July 2011, NASS announced they would collect updated information on 2011 acres planted to corn, soybeans, Durum and other spring wheat in four states as at the time of the June Acreage survey, there were a large percentage of acres remained to be planted in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota. The info was released in the August Crop Production report.

In 2010, NASS said they may publish in the May 2010 Crop Production report updated estimates for 2009 corn acreage, yield, production and stocks in North Dakota and South Dakota. The info was released in the August Crop Production report.

In 2009, NASS said due to variable weather conditions in key crop-growing regions, they would collect updated information on acres planted to corn and sorghum -- corn in seven states: Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania; sorghum in two states: Illinois and Missouri.The info was released in the August Crop Production report.

In 2008: After major flooding that hit areas of the Midwest after NASS had collected the data for the June Acreage report, the agency said they would re-interview producers in affected areas of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin to provide additional information about producers’ harvesting intentions for corn, soybeans and sorghum. NASS further noted that since some producers may be difficult to contact or may still be assessing their options, NASS said it planned to conduct a more extensive update of planted and harvested acreage in July. The information was reflected in the August 12 Crop Production report.

Comments: It is not clear yet whether the agency will do a special update for the conditions that have delayed planting this year. But with the significant planting delays, it would suggest the need to update the survey in selected states for the August Crop Production report. Even if a special survey is not done, NASS can still make a change in the August Crop Production report, as they have noted in the June Acreage report: “Estimates of planted acres for spring planted crops are subject to revision in the August Crop Production report if conditions altered the planting intentions since the mid-year survey.” 



NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


 


 

 

 

 

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