Winter Wheat Improves

November 3, 2008 06:00 PM
 

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor


From Pro Farmer

Updated as of 7:00 a.m. CT

Winter wheat condition improves... After plugging USDA's crop condition ratings into our weighted spreadsheet, it reflects solid improvement in the SRW Belt, while the HRW crop improved slightly. However, the SRW crop is rated below year-ago levels, while HRW is well above year-ago levels. At 380.77 points, the HRW crop improved about 2 points from last week, but is up from 337.93 points last year at this time. The SRW crop improved about 5 points from last week to 376.82 points, compared to 388.84 last year at this time.

The winter wheat crops are seeing a solid start to the season. As the crops go into dormancy, there will be little concern about the stands through the winter.

Winter Wheat

11/02/08

10/26/08

11/03/07

Kansas

132.76

131.02

128.40

Oklahoma

48.19

48.96

38.49

Texas

36.20

36.10

30.45

Colorado

28.93

29.07

25.54

Nebraska

32.53

31.79

31.03

HRW total

380.77

378.51

337.93

Missouri

37.93

36.98

40.43

Illinois

52.80

52.80

54.15

Ohio

52.28

51.06

66.50

Arkansas

26.75

28.49

20.05

Indiana

25.66

24.79

28.60

North Carolina

24.36

25.07

23.37

Michigan

36.90

33.81

45.97

SRW total

376.82

371.42

388.84

 

Keep your comments coming. Always good to have conversation with you and input on what you'd like to talk about. E-mail your comments/question to me by clicking here. Please include your location.


Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: 3 to 6 cents higher. Futures were supported overnight by weakness in the dollar. Futures trimmed gains into yesterday's close to finish just 1 to 3 cents higher. Corn struggled to hold onto early gains amid price-negative trade in outside markets and a lack of strong fundamental news. Corn appears to be working on posting a low, although an extended period of choppy price action could be seen before a low is solidly in place.

Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher. Futures were supported by weakness in the dollar. Futures favored gains to start the week, but trimmed those gains to close just 3 to 4 1/2 cents higher, which was a low-range close. Yesterday's upside bias signals the market is searching for a low, but without fresh demand news or other favorable fundamental events, soybeans will struggle to move higher unless outside markets are supportive.

Wheat: Favoring upside in mixed trade. Chicago wheat was 7 cents lower to 3 cents higher overnight, favoring the upside. Futures extended early gains yesterday, with Chicago closing mostly around 22 to 25 cents higher. While starting the week strong, wheat still has several more layers of resistance to work through in order to signal a near-term low has been posted, as contracts were unable to move above resistance at last week's highs.


Cash cattle expectations: Watching beef market. Choice beef values were 53 cents higher yesterday and Select rose 60 cents on solid movement to start the week at over 300 loads. Cash sources say all signals (tighter showlists) point to steady to $1 higher cash trade later in the week. Key will be if futures remain supported until cash trade materializes.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed after posting a mid-range close yesterday. Futures started the week strong as traders believe fundamentals are improving. Choppy price action, however, is likely as traders wait on clearer direction from the cash cattle market.

Cash hog expectations: Steady to weaker. The pork cutout market started the week under pressure, with values down $1.09 on moderate movement. This trims packers' profit margins and is expected to result in pressure on the cash market this morning.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed after yesterday's choppy performance. Spreading continues to keep the market choppy. The CME lean hog index is projected down 75 cents to stand at $58.15. December hogs are trading at around a $3.70 discount to the index, which could help to limit near-term downside risk on the contract. However, February hogs sank to a fresh contract low. The low-range close opens the door to spillover pressure this morning.


Back to news

Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close