Winter Wheat Improves Slightly

May 18, 2009 07:00 PM
 

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor


From Pro Farmer

HRW improves, SRW declines... After USDA's crop condition ratings are plugged into our weighted tables, it shows the condition of the hard red winter wheat crop improved slightly, while soft red winter wheat declined slightly. HRW wheat improved about 3.5 points to stand at 309.71, while SRW declined about 2.5 points to stand at 369.06 points.

Winter Wheat

05/17/09

05/10/09

05/18/08

Kansas

120.25

119.55

120.60

Oklahoma

27.91

27.52

40.40

Texas

19.17

18.36

27.72

Colorado

27.31

26.96

18.28

Nebraska

31.71

31.39

29.87

HRW total

309.71

306.19

315.26

Missouri

37.40

36.46

35.82

Illinois

48.66

49.60

51.77

Ohio

52.01

51.74

62.79

Arkansas

25.38

26.59

16.73

Indiana

26.16

26.56

28.16

North Carolina

24.29

24.75

26.20

Michigan

36.34

36.24

43.56

SRW total

369.06

371.57

369.28




Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: 4 to 5 cents higher. Futures were firmer overnight on help from outside markets and spillover from yesterday's gains. Futures opened weaker, but ended 2 to 4 cents higher, as traders viewed a weaker open as a buying opportunity. Early pressure came on spillover from Friday's round of profit-taking, although futures firmed on help from outside markets. July corn gapped lower on the open, but filled the gap and closed above the $4.20 level. While off session highs, spillover buying this morning would reopen upside potential to the May high of $4.32.

Soybeans: 10 to 14 cents higher. Futures were higher overnight on spillover from yesterday's gains and help from crude oil overnight. Futures finished 11 to 16 cents higher, which was near session highs. A weaker open was seen as a buying opportunity. July soybean futures remain in the uptrend from the March low. Initial resistance is at last Friday's high of $11.56 1/4. Next strong resistance on the daily chart doesn't come until the $12.62 to $12.66 range. To the downside, last Monday's low at $10.86 1/2 is key near-term support.

Wheat: 3 to 4 cents higher. Futures were stronger overnight on help from neighboring pits and spillover from yesterday's gains. Futures posted double-digit gains in most contracts at all three exchanges to start the week. Wheat futures used strong spillover support from widespread buying in the commodity world along with price-positive outside markets to work higher. July Chicago wheat futures missed a bullish reversal when the contract slipped below last Friday's high on the close.


Cash cattle expectations: Watching beef trade. Choice beef prices were 59 cents higher, but Select cuts dropped 51 cents, while packers moved 249 loads Monday. While not a poor start, the beef market must be strong in both price and movement to encourage packers to raise cash cattle bids in the Plains again this week.

Futures call: Steady to firmer. Live cattle were firmer through the day, closing 15 to 60
cents higher.  Strength in outside markets translated to a solid start in the live cattle pit for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was stronger on clues of economic stability, which traders say is a signal beef demand should also be stabilizing.

Cash hog expectations: Steady to weaker. The average pork cutout value was 77 cents lower Monday while movement was light at only 40.3 loads. That will keep cash hog bids steady to weaker across the Midwest as packer margins are deep in the red. If margins remain poor, some packers may choose to reduce late-week kill runs instead of raising cash bids to attract more supplies.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures opened the week under pressure, but closed mostly firmer. Another day of choppy price action is likely. June lean hog futures are in the middle of the short-term trading range from the contract low at $63.70 to the May 12 high at $69.23. A drop below the contract low would threaten to accelerate the downtrend. To the upside, bulls must fill the April 27 chart gap at $71.50 to confirm a short-term low on the daily chart.


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