With Key USDA Numbers Unchanged, Market Turns to Weather Talk

March 9, 2016 01:00 PM
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As Jerry Gulke waited for the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, he was hoping for one key piece of news: stable demand for U.S. ag exports.

“I wanted to see the government stop deteriorating demand in terms of exports,” said Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago, speaking with Farm Journal Radio’s Pam Fretwell. “... At some point, you’d like to have the government say (that) economically, enough is enough. We’ve done a big enough job cutting exports.”

With no change in ending stocks for corn, wheat and only a small adjustment in soybeans, that’s what USDA essentially delivered to the market on Wednesday.  

Of course, at 460 million bushels, the soybean carryover is too high for Gulke’s taste. “That’s a lot of soybeans. That’s about 200 (million bushels) too many,” he said.

With the March report now out, the market is already looking ahead to the upcoming prospective plantings and grain stocks report as well as any weather events that could affect planting.

“The weather thing is the biggest potential out there,” according to Gulke, who says numerous weather forecasters have been warning farmers to brace themselves for a very different growing season this year.

“It all depends on how fast we go from El Nino to La Nina,” Gulke said. “If we can wait until August, then maybe we can get a normal crop. If it starts real quick in June and comes in here in July, then you get hot and dry in July and August, which is the worst possible time.”

Listen to Gulke's full comments on the March 9 WASDE reports here:



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Spell Check

Swanton, VT
3/10/2016 06:21 AM

  Plant non gmo corn ,seed are sheaper, it Is better for worms ,colombols ,acarian, and al. live in soil. Gmo corn résidues Is poison for soil Life.

Kyle Fellerman
Greenfield, IN
3/10/2016 07:24 AM

  Mark I agree we need to cut back production The seven years that that happened all the people lost everything the pharaoh owned everything please don't pray for that The only people that didnt loose their land was the Priests because they were paid by the government

Mark C. Daggy
Humboldt, IA
3/10/2016 12:24 AM

  I pray daily that the California drought will move over the Rockies and total burn up the Midwest's crops. If farmers do not have the sense to cut back production then maybe much like in Egypt, under Joseph, the Creator will send 7 years of severe drought. Shutting down bin busting crops by 25% or more would fix the prices. Letting 25% of the land lay fallow each year, would improve the soils and the farm economy. If organized....the 1% of the population now farming would control the economy. I often ask myself, how small of a percentage of the population that controls the food supply need to get before we control access to crops?