As Jerry Gulke waited for the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, he was hoping for one key piece of news: stable demand for U.S. ag exports.
“I wanted to see the government stop deteriorating demand in terms of exports,” said Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago, speaking with Farm Journal Radio’s Pam Fretwell. “... At some point, you’d like to have the government say (that) economically, enough is enough. We’ve done a big enough job cutting exports.”
With no change in ending stocks for corn, wheat and only a small adjustment in soybeans, that’s what USDA essentially delivered to the market on Wednesday.
Of course, at 460 million bushels, the soybean carryover is too high for Gulke’s taste. “That’s a lot of soybeans. That’s about 200 (million bushels) too many,” he said.
With the March report now out, the market is already looking ahead to the upcoming prospective plantings and grain stocks report as well as any weather events that could affect planting.
“The weather thing is the biggest potential out there,” according to Gulke, who says numerous weather forecasters have been warning farmers to brace themselves for a very different growing season this year.
“It all depends on how fast we go from El Nino to La Nina,” Gulke said. “If we can wait until August, then maybe we can get a normal crop. If it starts real quick in June and comes in here in July, then you get hot and dry in July and August, which is the worst possible time.”
Listen to Gulke's full comments on the March 9 WASDE reports here: