According to the saying, March roars in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. But when it comes to the expected March 10 WASDE and highly anticipated March 31 Prospective Planting reports, perhaps the saying should be reversed.
“We tread water here, except for beans,” observed Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in a special Farm Journal Radio report.
Soybeans were the (muted) surprise in today’s numbers, as the USDA left ending stocks at 385 million bushels. The trade had expected a drop, given the ongoing level of soybean exports.
But the number didn’t budge. “It almost implies that once South America gets rolling, they’re going to take the lion’s share of new business just like they always have,” Gulke said. “That’s not unusual. But I guess what is unusual is that we didn’t factor in at least another 5 or 10 million.”
Listen to Gulke’s full analysis here:
There were some small changes in corn: USDA raised its export projections by 50 million bushels.
“That’s in the right direction,” said Gulke, who joked he’d like to see a much bigger jump. “The key will be one of these monthly reports when they refuse to reduce carryout or increase demand,” he said. “That will give another signal to the market that we’ve seen the best we’re going to see this year for the demand side and then they’ll worry more about weather going into summer.”