World Shocks Shuffle After Trump News

November 10, 2016 02:32 PM
 
World Shocks Shuffle After Trump News

Emerging markets are divided over Donald Trump.

Most stocks rose after a post-election slump on bets his pledge to boost spending will help commodity producers. Bonds tumbled with currencies on speculation those plans will stoke inflation.

Some of the biggest movers of the day include:

  • China Steel Corp. and Polish copper producer KGHM Polska Miedz SA surged more than 5 percent
  • Egyptian shares rallied 4.5 percent in their 11th day of gains after country secured $2 billion in foreign financing
  • The Micex Index climbed the most since January in Moscow
  • Saudi Arabian stocks entered a bull market
  • Hungarian bonds led declines in emerging Europe, with yields jumping most since January, as Polish yields reach 16-month high and South Korean debt drops most in Asia
  • Mexico’s peso weakened 3.3 percent after falling most since 1995 on Wednesday
  • China’s yuan declined to lowest level since 2010
  • Ukrainian Eurobond yields climbed above 9 percent for first time since June on bets Trump will reduce U.S. support for the country
  • The Ibovespa tumbled the most since February in Sao Paulo, led by lenders after Banco Bradesco SA reporting disappointing results from its acquisition of HSBC Holdings Plc’s Brazil retail unit
     

“Most people are dwelling on the big drop in bonds, thinking that it will deprive emerging markets of capital flows while at the same time, Trump’s protectionist stance is interpreted to mean that EM might benefit from higher commodity prices but lose out from less trade with the U.S.,” said Koon Chow, a strategist at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA in London. This is “striking a nerve in emerging markets,” he said.

A day after Trump’s surprise victory sent stocks to the biggest selloff since Britain voted to leave the European Union, investors are reassessing the implications of campaign pledges that included renegotiating free-trade agreements as well as boosting growth. Trump’s proposals to raise infrastructure spending spurred gains in mining companies and metals, with copper climbing to a 16-month high.

About 470 stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index were trading higher, while 330 fell as the index slipped 0.6 percent to 875.20 at 11:20 a.m. in New York after falling 2.5 percent Wednesday. A measure of developing-nation exchange rates declined 1.2 percent. The premium investors demand to own developing-nation bonds over U.S. Treasuries widened.

Expectations that an acceleration of infrastructure spending in the world’s largest economy may lead the Federal Reserve to increase the pace of interest-rate hikes weighed on developing-nation bonds, as an increase in U.S. borrowing costs reduces the appeal of riskier assets. Odds for a Fed interest-rate hike in December climbed to 84 percent, based on U.S. overnight indexed swaps that trade 24 hours a day, after plunging below 50 percent while the outcome of the election unfolded.

“The market is reassessing what is going to happen in reality now that the campaign is over,” said Patrick Mange, an emerging-market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London, who recommends buying Asian equities and South American local-currency bonds. “Many of the pledges on things like infrastructure are quite positive for the U.S. economy.”

The Ibovespa declined 3.1 percent. Banco Bradesco plunged 7.1 percent, contributing the most to the Brazilian equity gauge’s decline. The lender’s shares fell the most since 2014 as investors were disappointed in the profit generated by the HSBC unit it bought for $5.2 billion last year.

The premium investors demand to own developing-nation sovereign debt over U.S. Treasuries widened 15 basis points to 346, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes. The spread widened for the first time in four days.

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