World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Cotton

June 10, 2010 02:54 AM
 

(scroll down for all cotton-related charts)

The U.S. cotton projections for 2010/11 show slightly lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month.  Beginning stocks are reduced 200,000 bales due to an increase in the export forecast for 2009/10.  Projections of production, domestic mill use, and exports are unchanged.  Accordingly, ending stocks are revised down to 2.8 million bales, equal to 17 percent of total use and the smallest stocks level since 1995/96.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers remains at 60 to 74 cents per pound.

World projections for 2010/11 also include lower beginning and ending stocks compared with last month.  Beginning stocks are reduced about 550,000 bales as higher stocks forecast for China are more than offset by reductions in Turkey, India, the United States, Pakistan, Brazil, and others. Production is raised for Australia, Sudan, and Mexico, while consumption is raised for Pakistan and Turkey. The resulting global stocks level of 49.6 million bales is 41.5 percent of total use which, if realized, would be the smallest stocks-to-use ratio since 1994/95.

The world and U.S. estimates also include revisions for 2009/10 from last month.  World beginning stocks are reduced 450,000 bales, mainly in Turkey.  World consumption is raised about 500,000 bales, due to adjustments for Pakistan and Turkey, where analysis suggests that ending stocks will be tighter than previously estimated.  Imports are raised for China and Turkey, while exports are raised for the United States and India, reflecting activity to date.  The forecast for the U.S. average price received by producers of 61.5 to 63.5 cents per pound is lowered one cent on the upper end of the range.
 




 
                     World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
                                 Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending
     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                         World
      2008/09         :    107.48     170.08      30.16      109.94     62.70
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    102.89     165.59      35.26      116.43     52.21
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    113.88     166.64      35.72      119.08     50.13
              June    :    114.32     166.53      36.14      119.49     49.59
                      :                     United States
      2008/09         :     12.82      22.87      13.28        3.59      6.34
      2009/10 (Est.)  :     12.19      18.53      12.25        3.40      2.90
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :     16.70      19.80      13.50        3.30      3.00
              June    :     16.70      19.60      13.50        3.30      2.80
                      :                        Foreign 3/
      2008/09         :     94.66     147.22      16.88      106.35     56.36
      2009/10 (Est.)  :     90.71     147.06      23.01      113.03     49.31
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :     97.18     146.83      22.22      115.78     47.13
              June    :     97.62     146.93      22.64      116.19     46.79
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.  2/ Based on export estimate.  3/  Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.





                                 WASDE-483-17                    June 2010

                          U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
                           :         :         :      2010/11  Projections
        Item               : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================
                           :         :   Est.  :         May            June
===============================================================================
                           :               Million acres
Area                       :                           
  Planted                  :   9.47       9.15         10.51 *         10.51 *
  Harvested                :   7.57       7.53          9.83 *          9.83 *
                           :
                           :                   Pounds
Yield per harvested        :
    acre                   :    813        777           815 *           815 *
                           :
                           :             Million 480 pound bales
                           :
Beginning stocks 2/        :  10.05       6.34          3.10            2.90
Production                 :  12.82      12.19         16.70           16.70
Imports                    :   0.00       0.01          0.00            0.00
  Supply, total            :  22.87      18.53         19.80           19.60
Domestic use               :   3.59       3.40          3.30            3.30
Exports                    :  13.28      12.25         13.50           13.50
  Use, total               :  16.86      15.65         16.80           16.80
Unaccounted 3/             :  -0.33      -0.02          0.00            0.00
Ending stocks              :   6.34       2.90          3.00            2.80
                           :
Avg. farm price 4/         :   47.8  61.5-63.5     60.0-74.0       60.0-74.0
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may
not add due to rounding.  2/ Based on Bureau of Census data.  3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data.  4/ Upland cotton marketing year
weighted average price received by farmers in cents per pound.  *Planted area
as reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings."  Projected harvested area based
on 2000-2009 average abandonment, weighted by region and adjusted to reflect unusually
favorable soil moisture conditions in the Southwest.  Projected yield per harvested acre
based on 2005-2009 average yields, weighted by region.




                                 WASDE-483-26                    June 2010

                         World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
                      :          Supply         :       Use      :      :
        Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
                      :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks
                      :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :
================================================================================
                      :
                      :                      2008/09
                      :
World                 :   62.61  107.48    30.04  109.94    30.16  -2.67  62.70
United States         :   10.05   12.82       3/    3.59    13.28  -0.33   6.34
Total foreign         :   52.56   94.66    30.04  106.35    16.88  -2.33  56.36
  Major exporters 4/  :   18.81   42.36     1.54   26.83    13.93  -0.19  22.15
   Central Asia 5/    :    2.42    7.12     0.01    1.60     4.45   0.00   3.49
   Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    0.67    2.41       3/    0.19     2.20   0.00   0.70
   S. Hemis. 7/       :    8.30    8.68     0.31    5.52     4.60  -0.20   7.38
    Australia         :    0.60    1.50       3/    0.05     1.20  -0.07   0.93
   Brazil             :    6.25    5.48     0.05    4.20     2.74  -0.15   4.99
   India              :    6.63   22.60     0.80   17.75     2.36   0.00   9.92
  Major importers 8/  :   31.91   49.51    26.03   75.24     1.88  -2.15  32.48
   Mexico             :    0.93    0.57     1.32    1.85     0.18   0.03   0.76
   China              :   20.50   36.70     7.00   44.00     0.08  -2.25  22.37
   EU-27 9/           :    0.67    1.23     0.96    1.14     1.01   0.05   0.65
   Turkey             :    1.95    1.93     2.92    5.10     0.14  -0.09   1.65
   Pakistan           :    5.39    9.00     1.95   11.25     0.38   0.03   4.69
   Indonesia          :    0.39    0.03     2.00    2.00     0.02   0.05   0.35
   Thailand           :    0.32      3/     1.60    1.60     0.00   0.03   0.29
   Bangladesh         :    0.62    0.04     3.80    3.75     0.00   0.01   0.70
   Vietnam            :    0.25    0.01     1.23    1.25     0.00   0.00   0.24
                      :
                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)
                      :
World                 :   62.70  102.89    35.70  116.43    35.26  -2.60  52.21
United States         :    6.34   12.19     0.01    3.40    12.25  -0.02   2.90
Total foreign         :   56.36   90.71    35.69  113.03    23.01  -2.58  49.31
  Major exporters 4/  :   22.15   42.41     1.50   28.77    19.59  -0.19  17.89
   Central Asia 5/    :    3.49    6.17     0.01    1.69     5.98   0.00   2.00
   Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    0.70    2.16       3/    0.18     2.17   0.00   0.51
   S. Hemis. 7/       :    7.38    9.15     0.34    5.70     4.54  -0.20   6.83
    Australia         :    0.93    1.60       3/    0.04     1.83  -0.07   0.74
   Brazil             :    4.99    5.75     0.10    4.40     1.90  -0.15   4.69
   India              :    9.92   23.50     0.60   19.50     6.40   0.00   8.12
  Major importers 8/  :   32.48   45.68    31.56   80.02     2.29  -2.39  29.81
   Mexico             :    0.76    0.42     1.50    1.90     0.13   0.03   0.64
   China              :   22.37   32.50    10.80   47.50     0.03  -2.50  20.64
   EU-27 9/           :    0.65    1.01     0.89    0.98     1.06   0.05   0.46
   Turkey             :    1.65    1.75     3.90    5.60     0.18  -0.08   1.61
   Pakistan           :    4.69    9.90     1.70   11.50     0.75   0.03   4.01
   Indonesia          :    0.35    0.03     2.10    2.05     0.02   0.05   0.36
   Thailand           :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.29
   Bangladesh         :    0.70    0.05     4.00    4.00     0.00   0.01   0.74
   Vietnam            :    0.24    0.02     1.70    1.60     0.00   0.00   0.36
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than
5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.




                                 WASDE-483-27                    June 2010

                         World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
                      :          Supply         :       Use      :      :
        Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
                      :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks
                      :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :
================================================================================
                      :
                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)
World                 :
             May      :   52.75  113.88    35.73  119.08    35.72  -2.58  50.13
            June      :   52.21  114.32    36.12  119.49    36.14  -2.58  49.59
United States         :
             May      :    3.10   16.70       3/    3.30    13.50   0.00   3.00
            June      :    2.90   16.70       3/    3.30    13.50   0.00   2.80
Total foreign         :
             May      :   49.65   97.18    35.73  115.78    22.22  -2.58  47.13
            June      :   49.31   97.62    36.12  116.19    22.64  -2.58  46.79
  Major exporters 4/  :
             May      :   18.41   46.85     1.43   29.94    18.63  -0.19  18.30
            June      :   17.89   47.00     1.64   29.94    18.94  -0.19  17.83
   Central Asia 5/May :    2.10    6.84     0.01    1.73     5.45   0.00   1.76
                  Jun :    2.00    6.79     0.01    1.73     5.42   0.00   1.65
   Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/May :    0.51    2.61       3/    0.19     2.38   0.00   0.56
                  Jun :    0.51    2.61       3/    0.18     2.42   0.00   0.51
   S. Hemis 7/    May :    7.01   10.82     0.30    5.95     4.68  -0.20   7.69
                  Jun :    6.83   11.02     0.51    5.95     4.88  -0.20   7.73
    Australia     May :    0.79    2.00       3/    0.04     1.85  -0.07   0.97
                  Jun :    0.74    2.20       3/    0.04     1.85  -0.07   1.12
   Brazil         May :    4.79    6.80     0.09    4.60     2.00  -0.15   5.23
                  Jun :    4.69    6.80     0.30    4.60     2.20  -0.15   5.14
   India          May :    8.32   25.00     0.63   20.40     5.70   0.00   7.85
                  Jun :    8.12   25.00     0.63   20.40     5.80   0.00   7.55
  Major importers 8/  :
             May      :   29.61   47.58    31.69   81.60     2.44  -2.39  27.22
            June      :   29.81   47.72    31.89   82.00     2.49  -2.39  27.31
   Mexico         May :    0.66    0.55     1.60    1.90     0.20   0.03   0.69
                  Jun :    0.64    0.64     1.50    1.90     0.20   0.03   0.65
   China          May :   19.84   33.00    11.50   49.00     0.03  -2.50  17.82
                  Jun :   20.64   33.00    11.50   49.00     0.03  -2.50  18.62
   EU-27 9/       May :    0.46    1.33     0.84    0.93     1.21   0.05   0.44
                  Jun :    0.46    1.38     0.84    0.93     1.26   0.05   0.44
   Turkey         May :    2.03    2.10     2.70    5.40     0.15  -0.08   1.36
                  Jun :    1.61    2.10     3.00    5.50     0.15  -0.08   1.14
   Pakistan       May :    4.16   10.50     1.90   11.40     0.70   0.03   4.44
                  Jun :    4.01   10.50     1.90   11.70     0.70   0.03   3.99
   Indonesia      May :    0.36    0.03     2.20    2.10     0.02   0.05   0.42
                  Jun :    0.36    0.03     2.20    2.10     0.02   0.05   0.42
   Thailand       May :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.28
                  Jun :    0.29      3/     1.80    1.78     0.01   0.03   0.28
   Bangladesh     May :    0.74    0.05     4.25    4.25     0.00   0.01   0.78
                  Jun :    0.74    0.05     4.25    4.25     0.00   0.01   0.78
   Vietnam        May :    0.36    0.02     1.78    1.80     0.00   0.00   0.35
                  Jun :    0.36    0.02     1.78    1.80     0.00   0.00   0.35
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and
the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 
4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 
5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.   7/ Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.  8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,
and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.





                                   WASDE-483-36                    June 2010

                     Reliability of June Projections (Continued)
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 1/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS         :Percent      Million metric tons            Number of years
   Production    :
       World     :   5.2    11.7     -16.3    27.9              2           4
       U.S.      :   7.2     4.4     -11.3    12.0             14          15
       Foreign   :   7.9    11.0     -11.9    23.9              2           4
   Exports       :
       World     :   5.6     4.2     -10.0     4.1              2           4
       U.S.      :  12.6     2.8      -6.4     6.4             17          12
       Foreign   :  10.5     4.1      -4.7     8.3              3           3
   Domestic use  :
       World     :   2.9     6.5      -5.6    17.0              2           4
       U.S.      :   5.5     2.2      -7.2     5.6             19          10
       Foreign   :   3.2     5.4      -4.4    11.4              2           4
   Ending stocks :
       World     :   9.4     5.1     -12.7     7.9              4           2
       U.S.      :  44.4     2.9      -7.1     8.4              8          21
       Foreign   :  11.8     5.6     -13.3     6.6              4           2
                 :
COTTON           :        Million 480-pound bales
   Production    :
       World     :   4.7     4.3     -16.4    11.4             17          11
       U.S.      :   9.3     1.5      -5.6     3.1             14          15
       Foreign   :   4.5     3.4     -12.4    10.5             16          13
   Exports       :
       World     :   7.6     2.2      -6.5    12.4             14          15
       U.S.      :  19.6     1.4      -3.0     3.9             18          11
       Foreign   :   8.1     1.5      -3.5     9.9             14          15
   Mill use      :
       World     :   3.1     2.9      -8.1    17.1             13          16
       U.S.      :   8.3     0.6      -1.4     1.3             15          13
       Foreign   :   3.3     2.9      -7.6    16.3             16          13
   Ending stocks :
       World     :  15.2     6.0     -14.3    15.2             20           9
       U.S.      :  35.0     1.7      -4.6     3.5             15          14
       Foreign   :  14.1     4.8     -13.4    12.5             21           8
===============================================================================
1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2008/09 is defined as the first November estimate
following the marketing year, and for 2009/10 last month's estimate.   2/
Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.




                           ​;        WASDE-483-37                    June 2010

                   Reliability of United States June Projections 1/
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 2/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
CORN             :Percent        Million bushels              Number of years
   Production    :  10.4     766     -3327    2379             16          13
   Exports       :  15.9     290      -850     588             13          16
   Domestic use  :   6.9     489     -5888    1095             18          11
   Ending stocks :  41.4     623     -2091    1460             15          14
                 :
SORGHUM          :
   Production    :  15.7      92      -228     171             13          15
   Exports       :  19.1      43      -118      97             13          16
   Domestic use  :  15.0      55      -139     100             13          16
   Ending stocks :  44.2      55      -189     191             11          18
                 :
BARLEY           :
   Production    :   9.1      31       -73     206             11          18
   Exports       :  44.2      17       -92      53             15          12
   Domestic use  :  10.4      35       -72      95             15          14
   Ending stocks :  17.3      25       -59      79             12          17
                 :
OATS             :
   Production    :  16.0      36       -77     231              7          22
   Exports       :  65.3       1        -5       8              8          10
   Domestic use  :   7.5      24       -39     160             10          19
   Ending stocks :  17.6      18       -59      77              9          18
                 :
                 :           Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL     :
   Production    :   4.7    1475     -3721    4919             18          11
   Exports       :  16.4    1082     -2650    1964             17          12
   Domestic use  :   3.9     957     -1800    4650             14          15
   Ending stocks :  27.4      66      -204     488             12          14
                 :
                 :              Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL      :
   Production    :   4.7     714     -1923    2330             19          10
   Exports       :  26.4     459     -1700     914             15          14
   Domestic use  :   3.3     469      -985    2100             17          11
   Ending stocks :  30.8     480     -1432    1288             16          12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :
ANIMAL PROD. 3/  :              Million pounds
   Beef          :   1.5     374      -569     819             18          10
   Pork          :   1.6     279      -579     676             18          10
   Broilers      :   1.0     238      -687     596             18          10
   Turkeys       :   1.4      63      -210     126             17          11
                 :
                 :              Million dozen
   Eggs          :   0.8      48       -83     125             20           8
                 :
                 :              Billion pounds
   Milk          :   0.7     1.1      -3.6     3.9             15          11
===============================================================================
1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice,
soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2008/09 is defined as the
first November estimate following the marketing year, and for 2009/10 last
month's estimate.  3/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2009 for meats, eggs, and milk.
Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate
published by NASS.
   

 

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