World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Oilseeds

June 10, 2010 02:52 AM
 

(scroll down for all soybean-related charts)

This month's U.S. oilseed supply and use projections for 2010/11 include a small reduction in beginning and ending stocks.  Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush projections for 2009/10.  Soybean crush for 2009/10 is raised 5 million bushels to 1.74 billion reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports.  Soybean meal exports are projected at record 11.5 million short tons, almost 2 million above the previous record set in 1997/98.  Lower domestic soybean meal consumption partly offsets the increase in exports.  Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected at 185 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.  Ending stocks for 2010/11 are also reduced 5 million bushels to 360 million.

Soybean, meal, and oil price projections are unchanged this month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel.  Soybean meal and oil prices for 2010/11 are projected at $230 to $270 per short ton and 34 to 38 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.2 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, mainly due to higher peanut production.  China's peanut production is raised 0.9 million tons to 14.8 million tons based on higher area and yield.  EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 21 million mainly due to lower area resulting from flooding, especially in Poland, in May.  Other changes include increased soybean production for Ukraine, and reduced soybean production for China based on lower area.  Brazil's 2009/10 soybean production is increased 1 million tons to a record 69 million reflecting increased harvested area and record yields.
 


 




                                 WASDE-483-10                    June 2010
 
                 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :           :   Total   :        :   Total   :  Ending
     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  :  Trade :    Use 2/ :  Stocks
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                         World
Oilseeds              :
      2008/09         :    397.20     458.84     94.66      338.76     56.53
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    440.88     497.41    101.91      353.33     76.56
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    439.96     515.42    104.41      369.55     77.25
              June    :    440.22     516.78    104.36      369.74     77.52
Oilmeals              :
      2008/09         :    228.92     236.66     68.57      228.59      6.29
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    240.49     246.78     71.90      237.34      6.57
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    251.38     258.26     73.84      248.17      7.63
              June    :    251.45     258.01     74.29      248.10      7.20
Vegetable Oils        :
      2008/09         :    133.45     144.50     55.78      130.33     12.48
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    139.26     151.74     57.39      137.78     12.15
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    146.64     158.87     60.50      143.60     13.14
              June    :    146.71     158.85     60.65      144.04     13.11
                      :
                      :                     United States
Oilseeds              :
      2008/09         :     89.20      97.41     35.80       49.35      5.62
      2009/10 (Est.)  :     98.90     105.55     40.51       51.12      6.41
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :     99.09     106.82     37.81       48.71     11.38
              June    :     99.09     106.64     37.81       48.70     11.25
Oilmeals              :
      2008/09         :     37.72      39.87      7.96       31.67      0.25
      2009/10 (Est.)  :     39.60      41.29     10.66       30.29      0.33
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :     37.67      39.92      8.24       31.34      0.33
              June    :     37.71      39.96      8.33       31.29      0.33
Vegetable Oils        :
      2008/09         :      9.67      14.37      1.46       11.23      1.68
      2009/10 (Est.)  :      9.96      14.73      1.81       11.30      1.62
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :      9.65      14.57      1.36       11.59      1.62
              June    :      9.65      14.54      1.36       11.57      1.61
                      :
                      :                      Foreign 3/
Oilseeds              :
      2008/09         :    308.00     361.43     58.86      289.40     50.91
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    341.98     391.86     61.40      302.21     70.15
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    340.86     408.60     66.59      320.83     65.87
              June    :    341.13     410.14     66.54      321.04     66.27
Oilmeals              :
      2008/09         :    191.20     196.79     60.61      196.93      6.04
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    200.89     205.49     61.24      207.05      6.23
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    213.71     218.34     65.60      216.83      7.29
              June    :    213.74     218.05     65.96      216.81      6.87
Vegetable Oils        :
      2008/09         :    123.78     130.14     54.33      119.11     10.80
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    129.30     137.02     55.58      126.49     10.53
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    137.00     144.30     59.14      132.01     11.52
              June    :    137.05     144.31     59.29      132.47     11.50
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an
Oct.-Sept. year.  2/ Crush only for oilseeds.  3/ Total foreign is equal to
world minus United States.
    

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