World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Soybean Charts

June 10, 2010 02:42 AM
 


AgWeb.com Editors

                                                                                
  




                                 WASDE-483-15                    June 2010
 
        U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
                           :         :         :      2010/11  Projections
        Item               : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================
                           :         :   Est.  :         May            June
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS:                  :               Million acres
Area                       :                            
  Planted                  :   75.7       77.5          78.1 *          78.1 *
  Harvested                :   74.7       76.4          77.1 *          77.1 *
                           :
                           :                   Bushels
Yield per harvested        :
    acre                   :   39.7       44.0          42.9 *          42.9 *
                           :
                           :             Million bushels
                           :
Beginning stocks           :    205        138           190             185
Production                 :  2,967      3,359         3,310           3,310
Imports                    :     13         15            10              10
  Supply, total            :  3,185      3,512         3,510           3,505
Crushings                  :  1,662      1,740         1,640           1,640
Exports                    :  1,283      1,455         1,350           1,350
Seed                       :     90         91            88              88
Residual                   :     12         42            66              66
  Use, total               :  3,047      3,328         3,144           3,144
Ending stocks              :    138        185           365             360
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/  :   9.97       9.50    8.00- 9.50     8.00 - 9.50
                           :
                           :
                           :               Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL:               :
Beginning stocks           :  2,485      2,742         2,837           2,842
Production                 : 18,746     19,445 3/     18,695          18,695
Imports                    :     90        105           115             115
  Supply, total            : 21,321     22,292        21,647          21,652
Domestic                   : 16,385     16,200        16,700          16,700
  For methyl ester         :  1,907      2,200         2,900           2,900
Exports                    :  2,193      3,250         2,200           2,200
  Use, total               : 18,578     19,450        18,900          18,900
Ending stocks              :  2,742      2,842         2,747           2,752
Average price (c/lb) 2/    :  32.16      36.00         34.00-          34.00-
                           :                            38.00           38.00
                           :
                           :           Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL:              :
Beginning stocks           :    294        235           300             300
Production                 : 39,104     41,225 3/     39,035          39,035
Imports                    :     88        140           165             165
  Supply, total            : 39,486     41,600        39,500          39,500
Domestic                   : 30,743     29,800        30,400          30,300
Exports                    :  8,508     11,500         8,800           8,900
  Use, total               : 39,251     41,300        39,200          39,200
Ending stocks              :    235        300           300             300
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/  : 331.17     295.00        230.00-         230.00-
                           :                           270.00          270.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.  
1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil
and meal.  2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received 
by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal,
simple average of 48 percent, Decatur.  3/ Based on October year crush estimate
of 1,750 million bushels.  *Planted acres are reported in the March 31
Prospective Plantings report.  Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted 
to harvested ratios by state.  Projected yield based on 1989-2009 regional
trend analysis.






                                 WASDE-483-28                    June 2010
 
                       World Soybean Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :          Supply         :           Use         :
                      :=========================:=======================:Ending
     Region           :         :       :       :               :       :stocks
                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :    Domestic   :       :
                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports:
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                      2008/09
World 2/              :   52.91  211.96   77.17  193.01  221.03   77.34   43.66
United States         :    5.58   80.75    0.36   45.23   48.00   34.93    3.76
Total foreign         :   47.33  131.22   76.80  147.78  173.03   42.42   39.90
  Major exporters 3/  :   40.85   93.80    1.30   64.61   69.09   38.21   28.65
   Argentina          :   21.76   32.00    1.24   31.24   32.82    5.59   16.59
   Brazil             :   18.90   57.80    0.04   31.87   34.72   29.99   12.04
  Major importers 4/  :    5.61   17.58   64.50   61.66   77.19    0.45   10.05
   China              :    4.25   15.54   41.10   41.04   51.44    0.40    9.05
   EU-27              :    0.81    0.64   13.21   12.86   14.09    0.02    0.56
   Japan              :    0.27    0.26    3.40    2.50    3.75    0.00    0.18
   Mexico             :    0.06    0.15    3.33    3.47    3.50    0.00    0.04
                      :
                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)
World 2/              :   43.66  259.20   84.15  205.22  235.20   86.35   65.47
United States         :    3.76   91.42    0.41   47.36   50.96   39.60    5.02
Total foreign         :   39.90  167.78   83.74  157.87  184.24   46.75   60.44
  Major exporters 3/  :   28.65  130.20    0.20   67.88   72.50   42.25   44.30
   Argentina          :   16.59   54.00    0.00   34.83   36.42    7.50   26.67
   Brazil             :   12.04   69.00    0.19   31.50   34.40   29.35   17.47
  Major importers 4/  :   10.05   16.87   70.78   67.69   83.69    0.32   13.68
   China              :    9.05   14.70   47.00   47.28   57.88    0.25   12.62
   EU-27              :    0.56    0.86   13.00   12.50   13.77    0.04    0.61
   Japan              :    0.18    0.23    3.60    2.53    3.83    0.00    0.18
   Mexico             :    0.04    0.11    3.45    3.51    3.55    0.00    0.05
                      :
                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)
World 2/              :
             May      :   63.76  250.13   86.46  215.31  246.35   87.92   66.09
            June      :   65.47  249.93   86.38  215.30  246.55   88.24   66.99
United States         :
             May      :    5.16   90.08    0.27   44.63   48.84   36.74    9.94
            June      :    5.02   90.08    0.27   44.63   48.84   36.74    9.80
Total foreign         :
             May      :   58.60  160.05   86.19  170.68  197.51   51.18   56.15
            June      :   60.44  159.85   86.11  170.67  197.71   51.50   57.19
  Major exporters 3/  :
             May      :   43.68  121.50    0.19   73.00   77.80   46.24   41.34
            June      :   44.30  121.50    0.19   73.00   77.80   46.24   41.95
   Argentina      May :   26.67   50.00    0.00   38.65   40.32   12.50   23.85
                  Jun :   26.67   50.00    0.00   38.65   40.32   12.50   23.85
   Brazil         May :   16.83   65.00    0.18   32.80   35.80   28.90   17.31
                  Jun :   17.47   65.00    0.18   32.80   35.80   28.90   17.95
  Major importers 4/  :
             May      :   12.56   17.51   72.89   73.30   89.64    0.52   12.80
            June      :   13.68   16.91   72.81   73.44   89.77    0.52   13.12
   China          May :   11.49   15.20   49.00   52.70   63.52    0.45   11.72
                  Jun :   12.62   14.60   49.00   52.90   63.72    0.45   12.05
   EU-27          May :    0.62    1.00   12.60   12.40   13.62    0.03    0.57
                  Jun :    0.61    1.00   12.60   12.40   13.62    0.03    0.56
   Japan          May :    0.18    0.23    3.60    2.53    3.83    0.00    0.17
                  Jun :    0.18    0.23    3.60    2.53    3.83    0.00    0.17
   Mexico         May :    0.05    0.11    3.50    3.57    3.61    0.00    0.05
                  Jun :    0.05    0.11    3.50    3.57    3.61    0.00    0.05
===============================================================================
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are
adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may not
balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between
reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal world
use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay.  4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and
Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand).




                                 WASDE-483-29                    June 2010
 
                     World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :          Supply         :        Use        :
                      :=========================:===================: Ending
        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks
                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total   :         :
                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                      2008/09
World 2/              :    6.36  151.67   51.20    152.38    52.18     4.68
United States         :    0.27   35.48    0.08     27.89     7.72     0.21
Total foreign         :    6.10  116.20   51.12    124.49    44.46     4.47
  Major exporters 3/  :    3.83   55.05    0.12     15.46    40.29     3.25
   Argentina          :    1.14   24.36    0.00      0.63    24.03     0.85
   Brazil             :    2.59   24.70    0.11     12.44    13.11     1.84
   India              :    0.11    5.99    0.01      2.38     3.16     0.56
  Major importers 4/  :    1.27   44.10   28.19     71.70     1.53     0.33
   EU-27              :    1.07   10.13   20.98     31.58     0.47     0.13
   China              :    0.00   32.48    0.22     31.67     1.02     0.00
                      :
                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)
World 2/              :    4.68  161.56   53.70    159.51    55.20     5.24
United States         :    0.21   37.40    0.13     27.03    10.43     0.27
Total foreign         :    4.47  124.16   53.57    132.48    44.76     4.96
  Major exporters 3/  :    3.25   56.51    0.11     16.33    40.05     3.49
   Argentina          :    0.85   27.15    0.00      0.67    26.00     1.32
   Brazil             :    1.84   24.41    0.10     12.80    11.95     1.60
   India              :    0.56    4.95    0.01      2.85     2.10     0.56
  Major importers 4/  :    0.33   48.80   29.66     76.00     2.17     0.64
   EU-27              :    0.13    9.85   22.30     31.44     0.47     0.37
   China              :    0.00   37.42    0.05     35.82     1.65     0.00
                      :
                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)
World 2/              :
             May      :    5.58  169.64   55.32    167.89    56.62     6.03
            June      :    5.24  169.63   55.50    167.89    56.81     5.67
United States         :
             May      :    0.27   35.41    0.15     27.58     7.98     0.27
            June      :    0.27   35.41    0.15     27.49     8.07     0.27
Total foreign         :
             May      :    5.30  134.22   55.17    140.31    48.63     5.75
            June      :    4.96  134.22   55.35    140.40    48.73     5.40
  Major exporters 3/  :
             May      :    3.84   61.45    0.13     17.16    44.23     4.02
            June      :    3.49   61.45    0.13     17.16    44.23     3.67
   Argentina      May :    1.28   29.95    0.00      0.70    29.30     1.23
                  Jun :    1.32   29.95    0.00      0.70    29.30     1.28
   Brazil         May :    2.10   25.42    0.12     13.38    11.83     2.43
                  Jun :    1.60   25.42    0.12     13.38    11.83     1.93
   India          May :    0.46    6.08    0.01      3.08     3.10     0.37
                  Jun :    0.56    6.08    0.01      3.08     3.10     0.47
  Major importers 4/  :
             May      :    0.62   53.20   30.92     81.99     1.90     0.84
            June      :    0.64   53.30   30.80     81.89     2.00     0.85
   EU-27          May :    0.37    9.77   23.20     32.30     0.45     0.58
                  Jun :    0.37    9.77   23.20     32.30     0.45     0.58
   China          May :    0.00   41.71    0.05     40.36     1.40     0.00
                  Jun :    0.00   41.87    0.05     40.42     1.50     0.00
===============================================================================
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which
are adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags
between reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal
world use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India.  4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU,
and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand).




                                 WASDE-483-30                    June 2010
 
                     World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :          Supply         :        Use        :
                      :=========================:===================: Ending
        Region        :         :       :       :         :         : stocks
                      :Beginning:Produc-:       : Total   :         :
                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Domestic: Exports :
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                      2008/09
World 2/              :    3.17   35.75    8.94     35.93     9.11     2.82
United States         :    1.13    8.50    0.04      7.43     1.00     1.24
Total foreign         :    2.05   27.25    8.90     28.50     8.12     1.57
  Major exporters 3/  :    0.94   14.35    0.80      8.48     7.01     0.59
   Argentina          :    0.30    5.91    0.00      1.43     4.70     0.08
   Brazil             :    0.43    6.12    0.01      4.27     1.91     0.37
   EU-27              :    0.21    2.31    0.79      2.78     0.40     0.14
  Major importers 4/  :    0.36    8.65    3.60     11.86     0.09     0.66
   China              :    0.23    7.31    2.49      9.49     0.08     0.47
   India              :    0.13    1.34    1.06      2.33     0.00     0.19
   Pakistan           :    0.01    0.00    0.04      0.05     0.00     0.00
                      :
                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)
World 2/              :    2.82   37.98    8.56     37.74     9.01     2.61
United States         :    1.24    8.82    0.05      7.35     1.47     1.29
Total foreign         :    1.57   29.16    8.52     30.39     7.53     1.33
  Major exporters 3/  :    0.59   14.96    0.50      9.04     6.33     0.69
   Argentina          :    0.08    6.67    0.00      1.88     4.67     0.21
   Brazil             :    0.37    6.04    0.05      4.88     1.26     0.33
   EU-27              :    0.14    2.25    0.45      2.28     0.40     0.16
  Major importers 4/  :    0.66    9.54    3.14     12.90     0.08     0.36
   China              :    0.47    8.43    1.60     10.21     0.08     0.20
   India              :    0.19    1.11    1.50      2.65     0.00     0.15
   Pakistan           :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00
                      :
                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)
World 2/              :
             May      :    2.82   39.96    8.85     39.80     9.06     2.78
            June      :    2.61   39.97    8.97     39.86     9.06     2.63
United States         :
             May      :    1.29    8.48    0.05      7.58     1.00     1.25
            June      :    1.29    8.48    0.05      7.58     1.00     1.25
Total foreign         :
             May      :    1.54   31.48    8.80     32.22     8.06     1.54
            June      :    1.33   31.49    8.91     32.28     8.06     1.39
  Major exporters 3/  :
             May      :    0.81   15.92    0.45      9.56     6.79     0.83
            June      :    0.69   15.92    0.45      9.56     6.79     0.71
   Argentina      May :    0.21    7.40    0.00      2.13     5.20     0.27
                  Jun :    0.21    7.40    0.00      2.13     5.20     0.27
   Brazil         May :    0.45    6.29    0.05      5.10     1.29     0.40
                  Jun :    0.33    6.29    0.05      5.10     1.29     0.28
   EU-27          May :    0.16    2.23    0.40      2.33     0.30     0.16
                  Jun :    0.16    2.23    0.40      2.33     0.30     0.16
  Major importers 4/  :
             May      :    0.45   10.75    3.38     14.11     0.07     0.39
            June      :    0.36   10.79    3.38     14.08     0.07     0.36
   China          May :    0.29    9.39    2.15     11.48     0.07     0.29
                  Jun :    0.20    9.43    2.15     11.45     0.07     0.26
   India          May :    0.15    1.36    1.19      2.60     0.00     0.10
                  Jun :    0.15    1.36    1.19      2.60     0.00     0.10
   Pakistan       May :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00
                  Jun :    0.00    0.00    0.04      0.04     0.00     0.00
===============================================================================
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which
are adjusted to an October-September year.  2/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags
between reported exports and imports.  Therefore, world supply may not equal
world use.  3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU.  4/ India, China and Pakistan.





                                   WASDE-483-36                    June 2010
 
                     Reliability of June Projections (Continued)
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 1/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS         :Percent      Million metric tons            Number of years
   Production    :
       World     :   5.2    11.7     -16.3    27.9              2           4
       U.S.      :   7.2     4.4     -11.3    12.0             14          15
       Foreign   :   7.9    11.0     -11.9    23.9              2           4
   Exports       :
       World     :   5.6     4.2     -10.0     4.1              2           4
       U.S.      :  12.6     2.8      -6.4     6.4             17          12
       Foreign   :  10.5     4.1      -4.7     8.3              3           3
   Domestic use  :
       World     :   2.9     6.5      -5.6    17.0              2           4
       U.S.      :   5.5     2.2      -7.2     5.6             19          10
       Foreign   :   3.2     5.4      -4.4    11.4              2           4
   Ending stocks :
       World     :   9.4     5.1     -12.7     7.9              4           2
       U.S.      :  44.4     2.9      -7.1     8.4              8          21
       Foreign   :  11.8     5.6     -13.3     6.6              4           2
                 :
COTTON           :        Million 480-pound bales
   Production    :
       World     :   4.7     4.3     -16.4    11.4             17          11
       U.S.      :   9.3     1.5      -5.6     3.1             14          15
       Foreign   :   4.5     3.4     -12.4    10.5             16          13
   Exports       :
       World     :   7.6     2.2      -6.5    12.4             14          15
       U.S.      :  19.6     1.4      -3.0     3.9             18          11
       Foreign   :   8.1     1.5      -3.5     9.9             14          15
   Mill use      :
       World     :   3.1     2.9      -8.1    17.1             13          16
       U.S.      :   8.3     0.6      -1.4     1.3             15          13
       Foreign   :   3.3     2.9      -7.6    16.3             16          13
   Ending stocks :
       World     :  15.2     6.0     -14.3    15.2             20           9
       U.S.      :  35.0     1.7      -4.6     3.5             15          14
       Foreign   :  14.1     4.8     -13.4    12.5             21           8
===============================================================================
1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2008/09 is defined as the first November estimate
following the marketing year, and for 2009/10 last month's estimate.   2/
Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. 




                                   WASDE-483-37                    June 2010
 
                   Reliability of United States June Projections 1/
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 2/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
CORN             :Percent        Million bushels              Number of years
   Production    :  10.4     766     -3327    2379             16          13
   Exports       :  15.9     290      -850     588             13          16
   Domestic use  :   6.9     489     -5888    1095             18          11
   Ending stocks :  41.4     623     -2091    1460             15          14
                 :
SORGHUM          :
   Production    :  15.7      92      -228     171             13          15
   Exports       :  19.1      43      -118      97             13          16
   Domestic use  :  15.0      55      -139     100             13          16
   Ending stocks :  44.2      55      -189     191             11          18
                 :
BARLEY           :
   Production    :   9.1      31       -73     206             11          18
   Exports       :  44.2      17       -92      53             15          12
   Domestic use  :  10.4      35       -72      95             15          14
   Ending stocks :  17.3      25       -59      79             12          17
                 :
OATS             :
   Production    :  16.0      36       -77     231              7          22
   Exports       :  65.3       1        -5       8              8          10
   Domestic use  :   7.5      24       -39     160             10          19
   Ending stocks :  17.6      18       -59      77              9          18
                 :
                 :           Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL     :
   Production    :   4.7    1475     -3721    4919             18          11
   Exports       :  16.4    1082     -2650    1964             17          12
   Domestic use  :   3.9     957     -1800    4650             14          15
   Ending stocks :  27.4      66      -204     488             12          14
                 :
                 :              Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL      :
   Production    :   4.7     714     -1923    2330             19          10
   Exports       :  26.4     459     -1700     914             15          14
   Domestic use  :   3.3     469      -985    2100             17          11
   Ending stocks :  30.8     480     -1432    1288             16          12
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :
ANIMAL PROD. 3/  :              Million pounds
   Beef          :   1.5     374      -569     819             18          10
   Pork          :   1.6     279      -579     676             18          10
   Broilers      :   1.0     238      -687     596             18          10
   Turkeys       :   1.4      63      -210     126             17          11
                 :
                 :              Million dozen
   Eggs          :   0.8      48       -83     125             20           8
                 :
                 :              Billion pounds
   Milk          :   0.7     1.1      -3.6     3.9             15          11
===============================================================================
1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice,
soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2008/09 is defined as the
first November estimate following the marketing year, and for 2009/10 last
month's estimate.  3/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2009 for meats, eggs, and milk. 
Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate
published by NASS.

    

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