World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Wheat

June 10, 2010 04:17 AM
 

(scroll down for charts)

WHEAT:  U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are increased slightly this month as higher production is mostly offset by lower carryin.  Winter wheat production is forecast 24 million bushels higher mostly on higher Hard Red Winter wheat.  Winter wheat yields were raised in the central and northern Plains and in the Pacific Northwest.  Beginning stocks are projected 20 million bushels lower as strong exports of wheat, flour, and products during the final weeks of the old-crop marketing year boost 2009/10 exports 20 million bushels.  Domestic use for 2010/11 is projected 10 million bushels higher as lower prices encourage more wheat feeding. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 6 million bushels lower, but remain up year-to-year and the highest since 1987/88.  The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, down from $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel last month.  Recent declines in futures prices and lower-than-expected protein levels in Hard Red Winter wheat have sharply reduced price prospects for many producers.

Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 4.1 million tons lower this month with reduced carryin and production.  Lower beginning stocks mostly reflect reductions for EU-27, the United States, and Brazil as 2009/10 exports are raised for all three.  Global production for 2010/11 is lowered 3.7 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Syria, Turkey, and Russia.  EU-27 production is lowered 2.1 million tons reflecting crop damage from recent flooding and heavy rains in eastern Europe and April and May dryness in northwest France and the United Kingdom.  Production for Syria and Turkey are lowered 1.3 and 1.0 million tons, respectively, as widespread outbreaks of yellow rust have sharply reduced yield prospects in key growing areas of both countries.  Russia production is lowered 0.5 million tons as reports of higher-than-expected winter kill, particularly in the Volga Valley, reduce potential harvested area.  Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine as recent rains have improved yield prospects.

Global wheat trade for 2010/11 is raised with world imports up 2.0 million tons.  Import increases include Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh.  Exports are raised for Kazakhstan, Australia, Ukraine, and India.  World wheat consumption is nearly unchanged as a 1.0-million-ton increase in China wheat feeding is offset by the same size reduction for EU-27.  Wheat consumption is also lowered for Iraq and Brazil, but raised for Afghanistan.  Global ending stocks are projected 4.2 million tons lower at 193.9 million tons.  Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are expected to be up 1.0 million tons from beginning stocks.


 


 

                                                                                
                                 WASDE-483-8                    June 2010
 
                 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
                              Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending
     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                         World
Total grains 3/       :
      2008/09         :  2,240.79   2,609.43     285.59    2,159.72    449.71
      2009/10 (Est.)  :  2,224.31   2,674.02     270.53    2,198.65    475.38
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :  2,261.69   2,742.08     273.43    2,245.86    496.22
              June    :  2,256.33   2,731.70     277.07    2,249.58    482.13
Wheat                 :
      2008/09         :    683.15     807.57     143.42      642.52    165.05
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    680.04     845.08     128.88      652.18    192.90
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    672.18     865.55     129.18      667.46    198.09
              June    :    668.52     861.42     131.36      667.49    193.93
Coarse grains 4/      :
      2008/09         :  1,109.68   1,273.41     113.24    1,079.55    193.85
      2009/10 (Est.)  :  1,103.71   1,297.56     111.98    1,104.70    192.86
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :  1,129.77   1,326.47     112.83    1,124.96    201.50
              June    :  1,128.36   1,321.22     114.23    1,129.30    191.93
Rice, milled          :
      2008/09         :    447.96     528.45      28.93      437.64     90.81
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    440.57     531.38      29.67      441.76     89.62
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    459.74     550.06      31.42      453.44     96.62
              June    :    459.44     549.06      31.49      452.79     96.27
                      :
                      :                     United States
Total grains 3/       :
      2008/09         :    400.28     461.70      81.82      314.00     65.89
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    416.45     488.54      81.40      335.65     71.49
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    417.48     499.51      82.46      337.66     79.39
              June    :    418.13     495.81      82.53      340.63     72.66
Wheat                 :
      2008/09         :     68.02      79.80      27.64       34.29     17.87
      2009/10 (Est.)  :     60.31      81.31      24.09       31.93     25.30
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :     55.61      84.45      24.49       32.82     27.13
              June    :     56.26      84.56      24.49       33.10     26.97
Coarse grains 4/      :
      2008/09         :    325.87     373.98      51.17      275.75     47.06
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    349.22     398.72      54.01      299.41     45.29
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    354.25     405.79      54.63      300.51     50.65
              June    :    354.25     402.08      54.63      303.18     44.27
Rice, milled          :
      2008/09         :      6.40       7.93       3.01        3.96      0.96
      2009/10 (Est.)  :      6.92       8.51       3.30        4.32      0.89
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :      7.62       9.28       3.34        4.33      1.61
              June    :      7.62       9.18       3.41        4.36      1.42
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Based on export estimate.  See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.  3/
Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice.  4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).





                                 WASDE-483-9                    June 2010
 
              World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/
                              Million Metric Tons
===============================================================================
                      :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending
     Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                         Foreign 3/
Total grains 4/       :
      2008/09         :  1,840.51   2,147.73     203.77    1,845.72    383.82
      2009/10 (Est.)  :  1,807.87   2,185.48     189.13    1,862.99    403.89
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :  1,844.21   2,242.57     190.96    1,908.20    416.83
              June    :  1,838.20   2,235.89     194.54    1,908.94    409.47
Wheat                 :
      2008/09         :    615.14     727.77     115.78      608.23    147.18
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    619.72     763.77     104.79      620.26    167.60
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    616.57     781.10     104.68      634.64    170.96
              June    :    612.26     776.87     106.86      634.39    166.97
Coarse grains 5/      :
      2008/09         :    783.81     899.43      62.07      803.81    146.79
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    754.49     898.84      57.97      805.29    147.56
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    775.52     920.68      58.20      824.45    150.85
              June    :    774.12     919.14      59.60      826.12    147.65
Rice, milled          :
      2008/09         :    441.56     520.52      25.92      433.69     89.85
      2009/10 (Est.)  :    433.65     522.87      26.37      437.45     88.73
      2010/11 (Proj.) :
               May    :    452.12     540.79      28.08      449.11     95.02
              June    :    451.82     539.88      28.08      448.43     94.85
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Based on export estimate.  See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.   3/
Total foreign is equal to world minus United States.   4/ Wheat, coarse grains
and milled rice.  5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed
grains.


 


                                  WASDE-483-11                    June 2010
 
                           U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
                            :         :         :      2010/11  Projections
        Item                : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :==============================
                            :         :   Est.  :         May            June
===============================================================================
Area                        :               Million acres
 Planted                    :   63.2       59.1          53.8 *          53.8 *
 Harvested                  :   55.7       49.9          47.1 *          47.1 *
Yield per harvested         :                   Bushels
    acre                    :   44.9       44.4          43.4 *          43.9 *
                            :             Million bushels
Beginning stocks            :    306        657           950             930
Production                  :  2,499      2,216         2,043           2,067
Imports                     :    127        115           110             110
  Supply, total             :  2,932      2,988         3,103           3,107
Food                        :    927        920           940             940
Seed                        :     75         73            76              76
Feed and residual           :    258        180           190             200
  Domestic, total           :  1,260      1,173         1,206           1,216
Exports                     :  1,015        885           900             900
  Use, total                :  2,275      2,058         2,106           2,116
Ending stocks               :    657        930           997             991
  CCC inventory             :      0          0
  Free stocks               :    657        930
    Outstanding loans       :     27         51
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/   :   6.78       4.85    4.10- 5.10      4.00- 4.80
===============================================================================
                            
                       U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
   Year beginning           :  Hard  :   Hard  :  Soft  :       :       :       
     June 1                 : Winter :  Spring :  Red   : White : Durum : Total 
===============================================================================
2009/10 (estimated)         :                Million bushels
Beginning stocks            :    254       142     171       64      25     657
Production                  :    919       548     404      237     109   2,216
  Supply, total 3/          :  1,174       728     604      311     171   2,988
Domestic use                :    435       268     287       99      84   1,173
Exports                     :    375       210     110      150      40     885
  Use, total                :    810       478     397      249     124   2,058
  Ending stocks        Jun  :    365       250     206       62      47     930
                       May  :    380       250     211       62      47     950
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.  1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports.  * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2010, "Prospective
Plantings."  Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and durum are
projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and 1985-2008
yield trends by state (except Idaho durum).  For May, winter wheat harvested
acres and yield reported in the May 11, 2010,"Crop Production."  For June,
winter wheat harvested acres and yield reported in the June 10, 2010, "Crop
Production."


******************************************************************************
*                                                                            *
*                                                                            *
*       Wheat-by-class projections for 2010/11 will first be published       *
*                        in the July 9, 2010, WASDE.                         *
*                                                                            *
*                                                                            *
******************************************************************************



                                 WASDE-483-18                    June 2010
 
                         World Wheat Supply and Use 1/
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :          Supply         :           Use         :
                      :=========================:=======================:Ending
        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks
                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :
                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                      2008/09
                      :
World 3/              :  124.42  683.15  136.86  118.51  642.52  143.42  165.05
United States         :    8.32   68.02    3.46    7.03   34.29   27.64   17.87
Total foreign         :  116.09  615.14  133.40  111.48  608.23  115.78  147.18
  Major exporters 4/  :   22.75  211.14    8.26   68.07  147.70   65.64   28.80
   Argentina          :    2.35   10.10    0.03    0.03    5.33    6.77    0.39
   Australia          :    3.65   21.42    0.11    3.75    6.85   14.75    3.59
   Canada             :    4.41   28.61    0.38    3.30    8.03   18.81    6.56
   EU-27 5/           :   12.34  151.00    7.74   61.00  127.50   25.32   18.27
  Major importers 6/  :   63.35  171.94   74.39   14.97  231.35    6.44   71.89
   Brazil             :    0.34    5.88    6.40    0.20   10.70    0.40    1.53
   China              :   38.96  112.46    0.48    8.00  105.50    0.72   45.69
   Select. Mideast 7/ :    6.53   13.40   20.45    1.85   31.10    0.87    8.41
   N. Africa 8/       :    9.48   14.35   23.48    2.70   37.56    0.25    9.50
   Pakistan           :    3.48   20.96    3.13    0.40   22.80    2.10    2.66
   Southeast Asia 9/  :    2.66    0.00   11.96    1.32   11.74    0.42    2.46
  Selected other      :
   India              :    5.80   78.57    0.01    0.10   70.92    0.02   13.43
   FSU-12             :   12.43  115.46    6.54   24.65   76.42   37.76   20.25
    Russia            :    3.87   63.70    0.20   16.20   38.90   18.39   10.48
    Kazakhstan        :    2.45   12.55    0.11    2.70    7.53    5.70    1.88
    Ukraine           :    2.07   25.90    0.07    2.90   11.90   13.04    3.11
                      :
                      :                 2009/10 (Estimated)
                      :
World 3/              :  165.05  680.04  128.01  118.65  652.18  128.88  192.90
United States         :   17.87   60.31    3.13    4.90   31.93   24.09   25.30
Total foreign         :  147.18  619.72  124.88  113.76  620.26  104.79  167.60
  Major exporters 4/  :   28.80  197.48    6.51   65.73  146.12   57.50   29.16
   Argentina          :    0.39    9.60    0.01    0.03    4.93    4.00    1.07
   Australia          :    3.59   22.50    0.10    4.00    7.10   14.50    4.59
   Canada             :    6.56   26.50    0.40    3.70    8.60   18.00    6.86
   EU-27 5/           :   18.27  138.88    6.00   58.00  125.50   21.00   16.65
  Major importers 6/  :   71.89  183.52   66.15   15.44  233.90    5.33   82.33
   Brazil             :    1.53    4.94    6.50    0.20   10.80    1.50    0.67
   China              :   45.69  114.50    1.30    8.00  105.00    0.85   55.64
   Select. Mideast 7/ :    8.41   14.84   17.35    1.70   31.64    0.74    8.22
   N. Africa 8/       :    9.50   20.23   19.85    2.95   38.98    0.24   10.38
   Pakistan           :    2.66   24.03    0.20    0.40   23.20    0.30    3.40
   Southeast Asia 9/  :    2.46    0.00   12.75    1.64   12.44    0.41    2.37
  Selected other      :
   India              :   13.43   80.68    0.30    0.10   78.21    0.10   16.10
   FSU-12             :   20.25  113.78    5.55   27.73   80.76   35.05   23.77
    Russia            :   10.48   61.70    0.15   19.00   42.00   17.50   12.83
    Kazakhstan        :    1.88   17.00    0.08    2.70    7.55    7.50    3.91
    Ukraine           :    3.11   20.90    0.05    3.30   12.60    9.20    2.26
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.  3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil,
China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast
Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and
Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 




                                 WASDE-483-19                    June 2010
 
                   World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.)
                             (Million Metric Tons)
===============================================================================
                      :          Supply         :           Use         :
                      :=========================:=======================:Ending
        Region        :         :       :       :  Domestic 2/  :       :stocks
                      :Beginning:Produc-:       :===============:       :
                      :  stocks : tion  :Imports: Feed : Total  :Exports:
===============================================================================
                      :
                      :                 2010/11 (Projected)
World 3/              :
             May      :  193.37  672.18  125.65  122.80  667.46  129.18  198.09
            June      :  192.90  668.52  127.65  122.34  667.49  131.36  193.93
United States         :
             May      :   25.84   55.61    2.99    5.17   32.82   24.49   27.13
            June      :   25.30   56.26    2.99    5.44   33.10   24.49   26.97
Total foreign         :
             May      :  167.53  616.57  122.66  117.62  634.64  104.68  170.96
            June      :  167.60  612.26  124.66  116.90  634.39  106.86  166.97
  Major exporters 4/  :
             May      :   30.16  203.57    6.51   66.70  149.45   60.50   30.29
            June      :   29.16  201.47    6.51   65.70  148.45   61.00   27.68
   Argentina      May :    1.07   12.00    0.01    0.10    5.10    7.00    0.97
                  Jun :    1.07   12.00    0.01    0.10    5.10    7.00    0.97
   Australia      May :    4.59   22.00    0.10    4.10    7.25   14.00    5.44
                  Jun :    4.59   22.00    0.10    4.10    7.25   14.50    4.94
   Canada         May :    6.86   24.50    0.40    3.50    8.60   17.50    5.66
                  Jun :    6.86   24.50    0.40    3.50    8.60   17.50    5.66
   EU-27 5/       May :   17.65  145.07    6.00   59.00  128.50   22.00   18.22
                  Jun :   16.65  142.97    6.00   58.00  127.50   22.00   16.12
  Major importers 6/  :
             May      :   82.07  180.62   66.12   15.09  236.26    4.70   87.85
            June      :   82.33  180.89   65.73   15.61  236.64    4.62   87.69
   Brazil         May :    0.97    5.50    6.30    0.30   11.10    0.60    1.07
                  Jun :    0.67    5.50    6.30    0.20   10.90    0.60    0.97
   China          May :   55.44  112.00    0.90    7.00  103.80    0.85   63.69
                  Jun :   55.64  112.00    0.90    8.00  104.80    0.85   62.89
   Sel. Mideast 7/May :    8.38   17.58   15.38    2.35   33.16    0.71    7.46
                  Jun :    8.22   17.55   14.98    1.90   32.65    0.71    7.38
   N. Africa 8/   May :   10.08   17.85   21.50    2.85   39.85    0.24    9.34
                  Jun :   10.38   18.05   21.50    2.85   39.85    0.24    9.84
   Pakistan       May :    3.50   22.50    0.30    0.40   23.60    0.30    2.40
                  Jun :    3.40   22.60    0.30    0.40   23.60    0.30    2.40
   SE Asia 9/     May :    2.25    0.00   13.45    1.64   12.86    0.41    2.43
                  Jun :    2.37    0.00   13.45    1.71   12.94    0.43    2.46
  Selected other      :
   India          May :   16.10   80.00    0.30    0.10   80.01    0.10   16.29
                  Jun :   16.10   80.00    0.30    0.10   80.01    0.40   15.99
   FSU-12         May :   23.72  108.12    6.13   31.18   84.57   32.65   20.76
                  Jun :   23.77  108.12    6.23   31.18   84.57   34.15   19.41
    Russia        May :   12.83   58.00    0.15   22.00   45.20   17.50    8.28
                  Jun :   12.83   57.50    0.15   22.00   45.20   17.50    7.78
    Kazakhstan    May :    3.91   17.00    0.08    2.90    7.85    7.50    5.63
                  Jun :    3.91   17.00    0.08    2.90    7.85    8.50    4.63
    Ukraine       May :    2.26   19.50    0.05    3.60   12.60    7.00    2.21
                  Jun :    2.26   20.00    0.05    3.60   12.60    7.50    2.21
===============================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years.  2/ Total foreign and world use
adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports.  3/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years,
grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil,
China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast
Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and
Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. 





                                   WASDE-483-35                    June 2010
 
Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 29-year record of the differences between
the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an 
example, changes between the June projection and the final estimate have
averaged 15.3 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -32.2 to 29.6 million tons. The 
June projection has been below the estimate 18 times and above 11 times.
 
                            Reliability of June Projections
===============================================================================
                 :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2009/10 1/
  Commodity and  :=============================================================
      region     :  Avg. :  Avg. :    Difference    : Below final : Above final
===============================================================================
WHEAT            :Percent      Million metric tons            Number of years
   Production    :
       World     :   2.8    15.3     -32.2    29.6             18          11
       U.S.      :   4.6     2.8      -7.4     8.4             16          13
       Foreign   :   2.9    14.1     -28.8    28.2             17          12
   Exports       :
       World     :   4.4     5.1     -16.6    12.3             19           9
       U.S.      :   8.3     2.7     -10.0     7.8             18          11
       Foreign   :   4.8     4.1     -11.6     6.5             21           8
   Domestic use  :
       World     :   1.7     9.2     -27.5    19.6             18          11
       U.S.      :   6.0     1.9      -6.4     4.8             16          13
       Foreign   :   1.7     8.6     -24.2    18.1             19          10
   Ending stocks :
       World     :   9.8    13.0     -35.0    29.7             19          10
       U.S.      :  16.7     3.5      -9.6    14.9             16          13
       Foreign   :  10.0    10.7     -30.0    14.9             18          11
                 :
COARSE GRAINS 2/ :
   Production    :
       World     :   2.8    24.2     -77.0    76.0             16          13
       U.S.      :   8.8    19.1     -35.9    70.3             15          14
       Foreign   :   2.2    13.5     -41.6    39.5             13          16
   Exports       :
       World     :   6.4     6.8     -17.8    16.5             19          10
       U.S.      :  14.8     7.9     -22.8    15.3             12          17
       Foreign   :  12.1     6.3     -19.1    14.2             17          12
   Domestic use  :
       World     :   1.5    12.5     -22.4    33.2             13          16
       U.S.      :   3.9     7.5     -16.6    33.0             18          11
       Foreign   :   1.5     9.5     -13.7    33.5             13          16
   Ending stocks :
       World     :  16.2    22.7     -69.9    48.0             19          10
       U.S.      :  35.4    17.4     -57.6    43.9             15          14
       Foreign   :  14.2    12.0     -30.5    14.0             21           8
                 :
RICE, milled     :
   Production    :
       World     :   2.1     7.5     -21.8    15.2             20           9
       U.S.      :   5.5     0.3      -1.1     0.5             17          12
       Foreign   :   2.1     7.4     -21.9    15.3             19          10
   Exports       :
       World     :   7.8     1.6      -7.5     1.1             21           8
       U.S.      :   8.4     0.2      -1.0     0.7             15          11
       Foreign   :   8.5     1.5      -7.1     0.9             21           8
   Domestic use  :
       World     :   1.5     5.4     -20.3     5.8             21           8
       U.S.      :   6.8     0.2      -0.5     0.5             13          16
       Foreign   :   1.6     5.4     -20.8     5.6             22           7
   Ending stocks :
       World     :  12.0     6.1     -15.7     8.2             19          10
       U.S.      :  27.2     0.3      -0.9     0.9             16          11
       Foreign   :  12.5     6.0     -15.3     8.3             20           9
===============================================================================
1/ Footnotes at end of table.                                        CONTINUED

    

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