WxRisk.com: Active Weather Pattern for Central and Southern Plains

December 13, 2011 03:44 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The Tuesday morning radar shows storms over southern  MO into southern third of ILL...  scattered lighter showers and storms over southeast KS north central OK central NM and central AZ.


What happened Sunday?
Max temps were in the 20s over eastern MT ND SD... 30s over eastern WY NEB MN northern IA northwest WI.... 40s over eastern COL all of KS all of OK northern and western TX southern IA all of MO eastern WI MI ILL IND and OH... 50s over ARK TN KY northern MS northern AL and all of GA.


MONDAY - TUESDAY RAINFALL... as of 7AM CDT DEC 13 light to Moderate rains -- 0.10 to 0.50" -- fell over southern MO southeast KS and northeast OK with 50% coverage ... and over western TX with amounts under 0.25".... and heavier rains and snows over the southwest US into southern CALIF.


The weather pattern looks active with 2 PRECIP events for portions of the central and Lower Plains and Midwest over the next 10 days. The 2nd event looks to be more significant.


Tuesday minimum temps
Temperatures this morning were MILD -- TEENS over eastern MT and eastern WY...20s over ND SD NEB eastern COL and northern MN... 30s over KS MO IA southern MN WI MI IND KY and OH... and 40s for all areas to the south...


The Tuesday morning weather map shows large cold HIGH pressure over the southeast states moving out to sea and a cold front running sw to ne from NM to southeast COL into IA and northwest WI.


The pattern is stuck in a repeating cycle... It is one which features a distinct lack of really cold arctic air moving into any portion of the CONUS over the next 10 days...and the prospect of a least 2 significant rain events for some portion of the central and/or lower Plains into the Midwest.


The weather models continue to develop another large slow moving close upper low over Southern California and the southwestern states over the next 36 hours. This system is forced to move East the cause of more energy coming in on the Pacific jet stream and moving down the west coast of North America. As a result the first system coming out of the southwest states will bring areas of moderate to significant rain over some portions of the lower Plains but mostly over the central Plains DEC 13-14. The moisture from this Southern System gets pulled into a cold front that moves out of South Central Canada into the Midwest DEC 14-15 .


COVERAGE for DEC 13-14-15 Low... 60% over AZ and NM of 0.25 to 1.25" southwest and central TX and western OK....sees 30% under 0.25".... western KS sees 40% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50".... eastern OK central KS sees 65% coverage of 0.25 to 1.00"... southeast NEB all of IA most of WI and all of MO ILL WI IND KY OH MI sees 70% coverage of 0.25 to 1.25"


However the pattern isn't done yet. Recall I mentioned above that there is another system coming down the West coast of North America? That system also moves into the SW states which brings significant snow to the mountains of California & the Great Basin and rain to lower elevations DEC 15-16. This 2nd SW low appears to have a more significant precipitation shield with it as it moves into the central and lower Plains on December 17-18. Once again it looks like this southern low will merge with another system coming out of South Central Canada into the Midwest and develop another significant snow / rain for the WCB and all rain for the ECB DEC 18-19. If anything the overnight data for the this 2nd low looks WETTER and even more centered over the Lower Plains / drought areas


COVERAGE for DEC 15-16-17 Low... 75%+ coverage of 1-4" of rain over central and eastern OK ... central and eastern TX.... into southwest TX... western half of ARK southwest third of MO and southeast KS... . 60% coverage of 0.25 to 1.25" over TX Panhandle... western OK LA TN KY ILL and IND... .





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