WxRisk.com: Chance of Rains in Southern Plains

October 3, 2011 06:39 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

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Link to national radar.


The Monday morning radar shows all areas of the Plains, Midwest and all of the Deep South are clear and dry. 


What happened Sunday?

SUNDAY MAX TEMPS... Max temperatures over the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) stayed in the lower 60s... 70s over the western Corn Belt (WCB) into all of the Delta and Gulf coast states on Saturday were pretty much about the same except that the Texas panhandle as well as western Kansas and western Oklahoma reached into the Low and Middle 80s.


SATURDAY - SUNDAY RAINFALL.. ending as of 7AM CDT OCT 2. Rainfall was nonexistent over all of the Plains regions as well as the entire Deep South and almost all the Midwest Saturday into Sunday morning. There were some light rains is still lingering over far eastern Ohio but these amounts were under 0.25". Heavier rains fell over WVA PA NY and western New England.

The Sunday afternoon weather map shows are persistent area of low pressure over the Northeast U.S. and strong cool HIGH pressure extending from Ontario Canada into all of the WCB and Delta regions. The low over the Northeast U.S. is strongly associated with a large slow moving upper low in the jet stream that is situated over Western Pennsylvania.

The weather models do not offer a lot a change when compared to what the forecast is showing last week. A strong deep trough in the jet stream will develop over the eastern Pacific and move into Western Canada and Western North America this week. This will bring in much below normal temperatures from the Rockies all into the West coast and widespread heavy rains on Monday and again on Wednesday over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

For the Plains and the Midwest these regions will be IN BETWEEN the big system coming in from the West coast and the large upper low that trapped over the Northeast US. So if you want seasonal temperatures and dry conditions over the Plains and the Midwest for the next several days this is a good pattern that have.

The system coming into the West coast and Rockies is pretty strong and IF this was say the middle or late October this system could bring down significant snow into portions of the great basin and the central Rockies. The question remains as to how strong will this deep trough be when it comes out of the Rockies and moves into the Plains states.

A strong deep trough that holds together as it comes out of the Rockies and moves into the Plains increases the threat of seeing good rains over the dry areas of the central Plains and all of the lower Plains. On Friday the model data for weakening this trough so the rains are weaker over the western portions central and western portions of the lower Plains. However the model data this Sunday afternoon is in good agreement that the trough is now going to come out of the Rockies fairly strong and we will see good rains develop October 8-9 over eastern COL ALL of the TX Panhandle all of western half of OK and KS and western half of NEB: 70% coverage of 1 to 3"!!!! This to be the most significant rain this area has seen in months. In fact the European model develops a band of 4 inches are rain or greater over the eastern Texas panhandle into the eastern portions of the Oklahoma panhandle and far Southwestern Kansas.

As the trough comes east to the Mississippi River the systems breaks down and the rains fall apart by the time they reach -interstate 35. This means most of the WCB and all of the ECB and Upper Delta regions stay dry right through OCT 12.

In the 11-15 day the Models show another strong trough moving into the West coast and Rockies OCT 11-12... which moves into the Plains and Midwest By OCT 13-14. Right now the models are showing this trough three fairly strong and if that is correct -- IF -- this could bring another round of decent rainfall to the dry areas of the lower Plains.

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