WxRisk.com: Eastern Texas Receives Rain, Dry Conditions Return

September 19, 2011 04:11 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The Monday morning national radar shows three areas of showers and storms. One over MI and the central Great Lakes, a second western KY western TN into northwest MS and a third over coastal LA and southeast TX.


What happened Sunday?

SUNDAY MAX TEMPS... Max temperatures were still a little below normal over the Midwest... 50s over MN and WI because of the rain.... Upper 60s and low 70s over the rest of the Midwest regions... 80s over the Deep South and the Delta... into OK and the TX Panhandle... and 70s over most of the central and Upper Plains.


SUNDAY- MONDAY RAINFALL.. ending as of 7AM CDT SEPT 19. Significant rain fell across Midwest and Delta regions... while ALL of the Plains and southeast states were dry. Amounts were in the 0.10 to 1.25" range with 75% coverage over the Midwest. Heaviest rains -- 1.0" plus -- clearly fell over northeast ARK southeast MO southeast ILL and West central IND. Good rains also fell over super dry areas of eastern TX with amounts of 1-2".

The morning national surface weather map shows HIGH pressure -- remains and large cold HIGH which came down from south central Canada last week -- is now over eastern New England and moving out to sea. The cold front is falling apart but can be clearly seen on the weather maps running from the central Great Lakes into western KY and western TN down into the Delta. And as a new area of HIGH pressure which has mild warm air associate with it over the Plains.

This current cold front will continue to move east through the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) and into the Gulf coast states over the next 24 HRS and bring additional significant showers and thunderstorms to much of the Delta and the ECB regions. But this cold front will fall apart as it reaches the Appalachian Mts and the East coast. Another fairly strong piece of energy in the jet stream will dive out of SW Canada and move into the upper Plains on Wednesday and Thursday. This feature will bring significant rain to much of southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba and into portions of ND and northern MN.

In the 6-10 day that low over south central Canada will die out and a large upper low will develop this weekend over ECB and the East coast. This upper low will bring numerous areas of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday to the Delta and the ECB regions while all of the Plains and western Corn Belt regions stay dry and warm. By Sept 25 this feature will fall apart.

However over the West coast a strong ridge or dome in the jet stream will develop from the California Coast all the way in to the eastern Plains. The ridge/ dome will expand North AND East ... reaching north of the U.S.-Canada border sending temperatures into much-above-normal readings over southern portions of Alberta Saskatchewan and possibly southern Manitoba. Temperatures will also run much-above-normal over all of the Plains regions and it will be DRY. Once that upper Low over the East coast falls apart moves out of the way (by Sept 26) ... the ridge / dome in the jet stream over the western half of the nation will build east into the WCB and Delta regions.... meaning temperatures running above-normal and precipitation running much below normal in these areas.

At day 10 the overnight European Model develops a new deep trough over the the eastern third of the Conus. This brings in cooler-than-normal temps to the ECB and the East Coast but the Delta the western Corn Belt (WCB) and all of the Plains stay warm and dry. In the 11-15 day the trough over the East coast leaves and the warm dry pattern over the Plains and WCB drives east into the WCB and ECB regions

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