WxRisk.com: Forecast More Active in Early November

October 31, 2011 04:07 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The Monday morning radar shows a weak band of showers over northeast IND and eastern KY. There is a  second area of rain with storms over central and northern FL.    


What happened Sunday?
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS...  Max temperatures were in the 30s over  MN WI ... 50s  across all of  Midwest into ND SD NEB eastern MT eastern WY.. .60s over eastern COL KS MO ARK KY MS AL TN and  GA...70s over central and eastern TX and LAX.

SUNDAY - MONDAY RAINFALL... Rainfall Sunday into Monday morning was also pretty insignificant across most of the Plains  and the Midwest.  There were some scattered light showers across ILL and eastern WI.

The overall pattern is looking a lot more active as you move into November and with several significant import weather that features to talk about over the next 14 days. The potential exists for two major winter storms to affect the upper Plains and significant rain to affect portions of the central Plains and the Midwest.

A major piece of energy in the jet stream will move into the West Coast today and develop a strong trough over the Rockies on Tuesday. This will cause low pressure to develop and track through the central Plains and the Midwest NOV 2  and 3. The European models remains stronger with the system so it  has more significant rain to eastern KS MO IA and the eastern Corn Belt...  whereas the GFS has a lot less rain associate with this system. This low moves to the Middle Atlantic Coast with another rain event NOV 4-5.

At the same time a new surge of energy in the Pacific jet will crash into the West Coast and develop a major snowstorm for the Great Basin and the Rockies NOV 4-5. All the weather models agree on this feature and that it will move out of COL into the upper Plains  NOV 5-6. This system looks rather strong and could bring a major winter storm to eastern WY far eastern MT western SD western ND....  rain changing to snow for the  eastern Dakotas and  MN and all rain for  NEB IA WI MO ILL and the eastern Corn Belt..

WEEK 2: NOV 6 -12
Once that big low in the upper Plains moves into MN and south central Canada -- where it will bring a major snowstorm to all of Manitoba and far west and Ontario... The pattern is likely to repeat itself.

Weather models show another strong system over the West Coast and the Great Basin that causes another  strong low  to form over the central Rockies NOV 8. This low tracks east-northeast into the western central Plains ...Upper Plains... and then towards the western Great Lakes by NOV 9. This sort of track will provide significant rain and snow to the upper Plains and portions of the western Corn BElt... But this sort of track is a total miss for the drought of ridden areas of the lower Plains.

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