WxRisk.com: Good Chances for Rains in Southern Plains

November 7, 2011 07:06 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The cold front has developed a decent line of showers and storms over central OK into far northwest ARK into central MO into western ILL and west central IND. Scattered showers are falling over western KS and over far Northern TX.


What happened Monday?
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS...  Max temps were in the 30s over MT and WY into western ND and far western SD... 40s over eastern ND and ... 50s over WI northwest IA NEB eastern COL western KS the OK and TX Panhandles... 60s over the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) eastern IA MO northern ARK eastern KS and western TX... 70s over eastern OK LA southern MS southern AL and low 80s over central and eastern TX.


SUNDAY - MONDAY RAINFALL... MOST of the Plains and Midwest and Delta regions were dry. There was a band of showers from northeast OK into southwest central and northeast MO...into west central ILL. Amounts were in the 0.25 to 1.50"

GOOD rains for portions of the Lower Plains and all of the western Corn Belt (WCB) this week. Pattern next 10+ days stays MILD over all of the Plains and Midwest. Models have Upper Plains snow rain NOV 13-14... with rains for WCB but there is NEW LOW for possible SIGNIFICANT Rain for Lower Plains NOV 15 into the Midwest NOV 16.

The Monday morning weather map shows strong HIGH pressure located over VA and MD which is moving off the coast. There is a very strong area of low pressure over south central Canada and its cold front running southwest to northeast through the Midwest.

The weather models have not changed over the weekend and it looks like there is going be significant rain over portions of the central and lower Plains and into the Midwest in the middle of this week ... NOV 7-8-9. All the data continues develop a significant area of low pressure and moves out of the southwestern portions of TX into MO and up into the western Great Lakes.

This link shows the rainfall forecast for the next 5 days based on the Monday 0z GFS model.

As you can see the model is forecasting a significant area of 0.50 to 2.50" rains with 60-70% coverage over eastern TX central and eastern OK eastern half of KS far southeast as well as all of ARK MO and ILL into far southeast WI and western MI. On the other hand we can clearly see that the western portions of Texas Oklahoma Kansas and Nebraska are not going to see significant rain with amounts and these areas generally under 0.30" with coverage of only 40%.

Behind the system high pressure moves for next weekend covering almost all of the Plains and the Midwest regions. Temperatures will continue to run either at normal or above normal levels as there really is no source were supplied cold air coming into any portion of the CONUS east of the Rocky mountains.

However the active pattern over the western U.S. is not done as a model developing other major piece of energy in the Pacific jet stream which crashes into California next weekend.

WEEK 2 NOV 13-19...
The European and the GFS model both agree that this powerful piece of energy coming out of Southern California with tracks through the central Rockies probably bringing that area heavy snow and then moving into the central and upper Plains and into the western Great Lakes NOV 13-14-15. This feature will likely bring significant rain to the central Plains and the Midwest. IF temperatures are cold enough ...the upper Plains could see heavy snow as could South Central Canada. This order track would not bring significant rain from the system into the lower Plains or the Delta regions.

From NOV 16-19 the GFS is dry for the central and Lower Plains but its Upper air maps make NO sense. The European is developing a deep Low over California ...which HAS been the trend over the past 2 weeks ... and this low moves into AZ NM and TX on the 14th. The low develops into a Major event as it track through ARK and into ILL and MI. Such a track would bring good rains to MOST of the Lower Plains and all of the Midwest.

I THINK this solution is correct but this is NEW feature which as just "popped" up non some of the Models so there is still some risk / uncertainty here.

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