WxRisk.com: Monday Weather Outlook

August 15, 2011 06:43 AM
 

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
A quick look at the national radar can be seen here.

The morning national radar shows scattered storms and showers extending from over northern MT into northwest ND then into far southeast SD and west central MN. There is a well developed cluster of storms over far southeast KS and northeast KS.... and numerous showers and storms over the Northeast U.S.

SUMMARY: There are no signs of any sort of significant heat moving into any portion of the upper or central Plains or the Midwest between now and August 25. The weather models this morning develop the new heat dome later and further to the West so that the West coast sw and Rockies turn very hot AUG 21-25. SOME of that heat does get into far western Plains but it does not look like a big deal. The 0z European Model develops a deep trough over the Midwest and East coast AUG 25-26 that IF correct will bring a real cool air mass -- for late AUGUST air to the Midwest.

1-5 DAY AUG 15-19
All the models do agree that while temperatures will stay in the 80s across ND SD NEB northern MO MN IA WI WILL MI KY and OH it will also be a dry week was not a whole lot of rain falling over next five days.

This link shows the total forecasted rainfall for the next five days and as you can see there is not a whole lot of rain expected.

There will be a reinforcing cold front sweeping through the Plains and Midwest AUG 17-18 and that front looks to bring areas of scattered showers and storms ...40-50% coverage over the western Corn Belt of 0.15 to 0.74".... 50-60% coverage over KS and MO of 0.25 to 1.00" and 50% coverage of 0.10 to 0.65" over the eastern Corn Belt.

6-10 DAY -- AUG 20-24
In week 2 the European and the GFS model keep the Heat Dome over the western third of the CONUS and the build the Bermuda High into the East coast. As long as these two features do NOT meet then the Midwest and the Plains will temps close to Normal.... but the pattern remains rather dry. The cold front on AUG 19 stalls in west to east direction along the East coast then into NC TN southern MO and eastern KS and there may be some strong storms over eastern KS and MO AUG 21-22.

In the 6-10 day the European and GFS ensembles show the Plains...from TX to ND seeing 25% or LESS of normal rainfall and the Midwest 50-75% of Normal rainfall.

11-15 DAY -- AUG 25 - 29
The Operational or " regular" European Model develops a major trough in the Jet stream ...and surface cold front... that sweeps through the Midwest and into the East coast AUG 25-26. This front could have some good rains with it but right now the Euro is the ONLY model showing this strong cold front.

The data shows the heat dome over the Rockies and West coast and the Bermuda High...do NOT " link" so temps over the Plains and Midwest looks about Normal. BUT the pattern remains very dry. The Heat Dome over the Western Conus is so large it forces the Jet stream North of the US Canada Border so that cold fronts coming out of Canada are taking the wrong trajectory to produce Midwest rains.

In the 11-15 day the European and GFS ensembles show the Plains and the Midwest ... 50% of normal rainfall.


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