WxRisk.com: Pattern Turns Colder

November 28, 2011 04:47 AM
 

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.

 

The morning national radar shows heavy rains across GA eastern AL central and eastern TN almost all of KY southeast IND into western and central OH... then into far northwest PA and western and Upstate NY. There are additional rain and snow showers developing over portions of MS northwest AL and western TN. NY.

 

What happened Sunday?
SUNDAY MAX TEMPS...
30s were common over eastern ND eastern SD all of MN all of IA western WI and northern MO... 40s over central ND central SD eastern half of NEB eastern half of KS eastern half of OK all of ARK southern MO central and eastern ILL and southeast WI... 50s over MI OH northwest half of IND western KY western TN northwest MS northern LA all of western and eastern TX the OK Panhandle eastern COL western KS western NEB western SD western ND eastern MT eastern WY.

 

SUNDAY - MONDAY RAINFALL... ending as of 7AM CDT NOV 28 The rainfall on Sunday into an early this morning was restricted to the area along the front. Significant rain fell over AL GA TN KY IND OH and MI -- 70%+ coverage of 0.50 to 3.00" with a lighter rainfall amounts (0.05 to 0.50") over MS eastern LA eastern ARK southeast ILL northwest GA western PA and southwest NY.

 

SUMMARY
Some SNOW for portions of the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) Monday Night / Tuesday... Pattern is turning colder. Models show big Upper Low over SW states this weekend. If this Low comes out next week it could bring decent rains to the Lower Plains DEC 5-9.

 

The Monday morning weather map shows the developing area of Low pressure just to the north of Atlanta and near the Tennessee State line. The cold fun runs from that low pressure area down into central and Southern Florida and there is a stationary front running from that low into eastern KY OH and northwestern PA.

 

The weather models remain in very strong agreement that this new Low will drive up through Eastern TN eastern KY WVA and OH over the next 48 hours. The rapidly developing and intensifying Low pressure area will pull down cold air from the upper levels of the atmosphere which will force the rain to change over snow that the higher elevations in North central AL TN KY were a few inches of snow could accumulate on the grassy surfaces. However over Indiana into western and Central Michigan several inches of snow are possible Monday night into Tuesday. The heavy snow band will extend into much of Eastern Ontario and southwestern Quebec. Seasonally cold HIGH pressure will follow behind it for most of the Plains and the Midwest for the rest of the week.

 

Major changes continue to develop across the northern hemisphere with respect to the Jetstream pattern. A strong Ridge will develop in the eastern Pacific and push or expand into Alaska over the next several days. This will do two things:

 

First it will develop a large cold arctic high -- the first true cold air mass of the season over western and southwestern Canada. A piece of this cold air mass will sweep into the upper Plains the Midwest and the Northeast by the weekend as a cold front. This front could bring some scattered showers two the Midwest and the Delta regions but right now this does not look like a big deal.

 

Second, all the models show a strong piece of energy moving down the West Coast and stalling over southeastern California Arizona and northwestern Mexico. It's possible that this feature might come out and move east early next week and if it does so it could bring a period of moderate to significant rain to portions of the lower Plains. But NOT all the Models agree on this so it is something that has to be watched.

 

A much stronger and colder air mass will come out of Western Canada early next week. This could be a significant blast of cold air for much of the central and upper Plains the Midwest and the Northeast DEC 6-10. In this new seasonally cold pattern which are developing it looks pretty dry for all of the central and Lower Plains... in the week 2 time frame.

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