WxRisk.com: Rains Scaled Back in Argentina

January 9, 2012 03:43 AM
 

Meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com has provided the following weather highlights:

Yesterday in South America
Rainfall was non existent over all of Argentina and most of Paraguay. Southeast Brazil saw a few isolated showers that dropped under 0.35".... Most of MGDS was dry but western areas saw 2 isolated reports of 1.00". Northeast Sao Paulo into southern half of Minas Gerais saw heavy rain of 0.25 to 2.00" with 70% coverage. The rains reached into southern Goias and far southeast Mato Grosso but amounts were under 0.50 " in those areas... and Northern Minas Gerais and Bahia were dry.

Max Temps on SUNDAY afternoon were hotter IN a ALL area.... even east central Argentina. MANY areas reach 39 or 40 C which is above 100 degrees and for some r areas in Cordoba and La Pampa this is the 7 days with max temps with readings above 100 degrees . The heat covered ALL of Paraguay as well and RGDS in southeast Brazil. Over Brazil it was MUCH cooler in ALL areas with max temps in the Upper 70s to Mid 80s.

Morning Satellite
The satellite shows clear skies covering all of Argentina into eastern Bolivia all Paraguay all of southeast and southwest in Brazil. There are t-storms hitting eastern Sao Paulo and southern Minas Gerias and  few embedded showers and storms over northern Goias and eastern Mato Grosso.

Summary of Next 7 Days
TEMPS over the NEXT 7 days..
run cooler over eastern and central Argentina ... still warm just NOT as warm... Near normal over southeast and southwest Brazil and 1-2 degrees below normal Celsius over central and East Central Brazil.

Rainfall the next 7 days will feature significant amounts over Eastern Argentina... 100 to 200% above normal... BUT CENTRAL ARGENTINA LOOKS DRIER.... as does while Paraguay and Southeast Brazil remain quite dry...25 to 50% of Normal over the next seven days. Matto Grosso will see heavy rains --200%+ of Normal as will Goias and Minas Gerias -- Bahia see Much Below Normal rainfall. .

Soil Moisture Trends

Forecast Summary
This LINK
represents the total rainfall over the next three days for South America. As you can see the rainfall amounts on the GFS model continue to decrease with respect to the coverage. This is significantly less coverage and what the model is showing last Friday or last Thursday and it's also somewhat less coverage than what the model is showing on Sunday afternoon. Mind you the actual rainfall amounts are about the same with some areas seeing anywhere between 0.50 and 2.5" of rain and clearly the heaviest rains are going to be over Buenos Aires Entree Rios and southern Santa Fe.

GFS MODEL rainfall forecast for next 7 days -- has LESS rain for central and eastern Argentina when compared to what the GFS was showing yesterday.
EUROPEAN MODEL rainfall for next 7 days-- shows a general 1" rainfall with 70% coverage


 

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