WxRisk.com: Return to Drier Conditions in Southern Plains

October 17, 2011 08:03 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

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There are scattered showers and a few weak storms over northeast COL... southeast WY.... scattered over NEB into southwest IA. Heavy rains are moving into the southern FL.


What happened Sunday?

SUNDAY MAX TEMPS... Sunday max temperatures has temps in the 50s over eastern MY eastern WY SD ND MN northern MI and WI... 60s over eastern COL NEB IA northern ILL... northern IND and Northern OH ... 70s over TX Panhandle and western OK... and over central ILL southern IND and OH... 80s over southeast KS central and eastern TX and OK... all of ARK LA and the Gulf Coast.


SUNDAY - MONDAY RAINFALL... ending as of 7AM CDT OCT 17. Rainfall Sunday into Monday morning showed MOST of the Plains... Delta and Midwest regions were dry. There were moderate rains over southern ID southern MT and WY-- 0.10 to 0.50" ... and over northeast OH into Northern PA and western NY.


The Monday morning weather map shows a very large intense area of LOW pressure over Eastern Canada -- centered over Hudson's Bay -- and a large area of HIGH pressure covering the Pacific NW and over the Deep South. LOW pressure is developing over eastern COL. Over the Great Lakes region and over the Northeast U.S... winds have been very strong this weekend.


The large cluster of storms over the southeast Gulf of Mexico is building and is now very close to Tropical Depression status. It may be upgraded shortly and this feature could reach Tropical Storm status in the next 48 hours


In the short-term there are no changes in the forecast. All of the weather models are still developing a strong trough over the Midwest and the East Coast during the next three days. The LOW over the southeast Gulf of Mexico WILL get pulled into this trough on Tuesday and make landfall over FL and southern GA.


This LOW will rapidly intensified as the tracks into eastern North Carolina on Wednesday. There will be widespread significant rain throughout the southeast states and into the Middle Atlantic region. At this point the LOW will not be tropical -- just a coastal LOW. The LOW will actually get pulled NW and gets pulled close to Buffalo or Toronto on Thursday. This will allow for showers and very cool air to develop over the Great Lakes and all of the eastern Corn Belt regions. There could be some snow showers over the eastern Great Lakes as well as northern IND and OH and western PA on the night of the 19th into the 20th.


However this LOW will have NO impact at all for ANY portion of the Plains ... the Delta and the western Corn Belt. For these areas the rest of this week looks dry. Temperatures will generally be close to normal or slightly below normal in all of these areas but it will stay dry.


WEEK 2... OCT 23 - 29... The weather models are developing a another sparely strong piece of energy in the jet stream which moves out of southwestern Canada and develops over the Great Lakes and the northeast October 24 - 25. Behind this Midwest/ Great Lakes a fairly cold air mass moves into all of the Plains and Midwest OCT 26-27-28... so again for all of the Plains it still looks dry.

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