WxRisk.com: Second Half of Week Features More Active Weather

October 24, 2011 06:18 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The Monday morning radar shows a band of moderate rain and storms over eastern Ontario, central OH and into northeast KY. There is a 2nd band of showers over western and central MT.


What happened Sunday?

SUNDAY MAX TEMPS... Max temperatures were in the 50s over ND MN and northern WI ...60s over the eastern Corn Belt and over SD, eastern MT and eastern WY... 70s IA MO ARK NEB KS eastern COL and eastern OK... and low 80s over most of western TX and eastern OK into LA.


SUNDAY - MONDAY RAINFALL... ending as of 7AM CDT OCT 24. Rainfall over the Midwest was moderate with 60% coverage over eastern MN all of WI northern half of ILL most of IND and western OH ... 60% coverage of 0.10 to 0.65" and light rains fell over LA and southern ARK... 50% coverage of 0.05 to 0.40".


The Monday morning weather map shows low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and a weak front extends from the low into the eastern Corn Belt. High pressure is located the Plains and western Corn Belt.


Things are pretty quite and seasonally mild until a second cold front drops through the upper Plains on the 25th with scattered showers across the central and upper Plains (40-50% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50"). The front will drive south and east with more significant showers and thunderstorms developing over the Lower Plains and the Midwest on the 26th and 27th.


It is hard to say exactly how much rain is going to fall over the lower Plains with this front. The models have been having a great deal of difficulty in handling a strong piece of energy in the southern jet stream that comes out of the southwest states and moves through the lower Plains at the same time the cold front drives through. This morning the models are showing a LESS RAIN over the Lower Plains -- 50% overage of 0.10 to 0.65". There is still some time for this to change and turn wetter but right now this is not looking like a decent rain event.


Friday and Saturday there may be some rain over the big cities of the NE and snow over the mountains from a coastal low.


Models show system dropping into the Upper Mississippi Valley (MN IA WI) with some light to moderate snow and rain OCT 30 and showers over the eastern Corn Belt on the 31st.


WEEK 2 : OCT 31- NOV 6... All the models show two significant events. First a strong area of low pressure comes out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves into southwest western and south central Canada NOV 1-2. This feature will probably drop significant snow for the first time over much of southern Alberta southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.


Secondly, a major trough in the jet stream movies into the West Coast and the Rockies OCT 31- NOV 1. This feature will develop a strong cold front which moves through the Rockies into the Upper Plains NOV 1 and the central and Lower Plains and he Midwest NOV 2-3. This front could bring significant rain to portions of the central lower Plains -- if the moisture develops on the front early enough but right now this is just a possibility and not yet a reasonably certain forecast.


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