WxRisk.com: Significant Relief Seen in Southern Plains

October 10, 2011 08:04 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

USA currently
Link to national radar.


The morning national radar shows that the line of heavy showers and thunderstorms which are moving through the eastern Plains from ND to eastern TX last night has weakened considerably as its moved east. There is now only thin line of moderate showers and weak storms running from far eastern portions of the Dakotas into far western IA far western MO and northwest ARK. There is a second area of showers and storms over the western portions of ND and numerous showers and storms over the southeastern states associate with a coastal Low ... and a third area significant rain over northern CALIF and western portions of OR and WA.


What happened Sunday?

FRIDAY MAX TEMPS... Max temperatures on Friday were in the Low to Mid 80s over ALL of the Midwest into the Gulf coast and Delta ... 50s over eastern MT and eastern WY....60s and 70s over ND SD NEB and eastern COL.... 80s over KS OK and TX Panhandle...


FRIDAY- SATURDAY RAINFALL... This band of rain brought significant rainfall amounts to eastern MT and central WY into eastern COL the Texas panhandle into South Western Kansas and much of western and central NEB. Amounts in this area ranged from 0.25 to 1.00".


SUNDAY MAX TEMPS... Temperatures over the Midwest on Sunday ranged from 78 to 82 degrees... 50s were common over eastern MT eastern WY and eastern COL ND SD and western NEB.... 60s over southern NEB KS OK and TX. Given how amazingly hot it has been those areas for so long these temperatures must of been a shock to to many people in those areas.


SATURDAY - SUNDAY RAINFALL... ending as of 7AM CDT OCT 10. The last 24 HRS rainfall over the Plains states have been significant and widespread covering much of the Dakotas most of KS NEB central and eastern OK central and eastern TX . The edge of rainfall shield got up to the western state borders of LA ARK MO IA MN but did not cross and those areas. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.25 to 1.50" with 70% coverage. Additional significant rain to also fell over FL and southern GA.

The Monday morning weather map shows LOW pressure over Florida and Georgia which is part of a coastal storm which developed during the overnight hours... and HIGH pressure located over the Great Lakes and Eastern Canada. The band of heavy showers and storms are over the Plains but for much of the weekend has weakened considerably as it is trying to push east into the western portions of the Delta and the western portions of the western Corn Belt.

In the short term the WEAKENING trend of band of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Plains will continue... but this is NOT a surprise as it has been forecasted by all of the weather Models for several days. Meanwhile the area of LOW pressure over Florida will continue to move slowly up the se US coast. The Large HIGH to the North over New England will set up a strong E or SE wind flow which will help feed moisture into the southeastern states and then up into the Middle Atlantic and New England regions by Wednesday...Thursday... and Friday.

At the same time the next piece of energy coming in from the Pacific jet will move over southwestern Canada and drop into the GREAT LAKES October 12-13. This feature will pull in or capture SOME of the moisture over the East coast and bring SOME showers to the WCB on the 12th.... 40% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50" --- 60% coverage to the Eastern Corn Belt of 0.10 to 0.65" .... and 70% coverage of 0.,25 to 2.00" over the Northeast U.S. Southeast states and develop a significant storm over the eastern Great Lakes and over New England this weekend

In the 6-10 day ... the models have changed a little bit during the overnight. The developing a new cold front which slices through the Plains and the Midwest and rapidly reaches the East coast OCT 16-17. However that solution is what the GFS Model is showing. The European and the Canadian models stall this front down considerably and as a result ... these models show a lot more rain over the delta and a good portion of the Midwest with this slower moving front.

Obviously this could be a significant rain event for good portion the central lower plains and would be the second one in 10 days for the drought ridden areas of TX OK and the Delta. But right now the data is really split as to which solution is correct so the best I can say is that there is some risk for another significant rain event at the end of the 6 to 10 day over the lower plains and the Delta but this is just the chance and it's not yet a probability.

In the 11 to 15 day it looks like we are going to undergo a major pattern amplification--- which is just weather fancy talk that is going to turn cold over the Midwest and th East coast. The models are developing a strong ridge over the West coast the Rockies in a pretty large size trough over the eastern US .

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