WxRisk.com: 'Things Are Going to Get BAD in Argentina and Brazil'

December 27, 2011 04:50 AM
 

SOUTH AMERICA OUTLOOK

Meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com says "there is no doubt about it ... things are going to get BAD in Argentina and Brazil over the next two weeks."

Tolleris writes that all the models are in strong agreement that another serious heat wave is headed for central, northern and eastern Argentina in the 6 to 10 day outlook, which he says will probably last into week two. "In fact some of the experimental long range weather models are showing the heat wave lasting into week three," Tolleris explains. He describes the pattern in the 30-day outlook as being "strong and ominous."

Tolleris reports, "On the other hand, excessive rains on grounds that are already saturated is likely for much of east central and central Brazil. Over the weekend, central and east-central Brazil saw a drier period. But a new round of moderate to heavy showers and storms may redevelop as a new cold front stalls over the area."

Sunday afternoon satellite pics showed a lot of activity, and each day over east central and central Brazil will only get worse, Tolleris explains. "Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday will see heavy storms bringing precip of up to 3 inches over portions of Minas Gerais and 1 to 2 inches over Goias and central/eastern Mato Grosso."

The following image shows the GFS model forecast for seven-day total rainfall for South America. This is impressive to say the least. The dark blue = 100 mm to 200 mm, which is 4 to 8" of rain. The yellow blob is 200 to 300 mm, or 8 to 12 inches of rain.

WxRiskDec27


U.S. OUTLOOK

The following forecast is provided by Meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

 

Big rains are now underway in the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) and all of the East Coast. Another major eastern U.S. low Jan 2 to 3 may bring snow to the ECB and mountains of the eastern U.S. The pattern looks colder over eastern half of the U.S. Jan. 3 through Jan. 10, but the central and lower Plains looks mild and dry.

 

This morning's weather map shows a low pressure system over western and central Kentucky, with a warm front running from the low to the southeast to South Carolina and a cold front from the Low south into eastern Alabama and a new cold front along the U.S./Canada border.

Even over the mountains of the Northeast U.S. for late December a large portion of this event is going to fall as rain, with up to 2 inches of rain possible in many locations over the next 36 hours. Lighter rains will fall over southern third of Indianna and Ohio — 0.15 to 0.75 inches with 60% coverage.

 

The rest of the week will feature more mild late-December conditions as there's absolutely no sign of any sort of pattern change developing on the weather models. As we move into the holiday weekend, the models are showing a major trough developing over the Midwest which could possibly bring a snowstorm to the Great Lakes and more rain to the eastern Corn Belt and the East coast Jan. 1 and 2. Behind the system a pretty good blast of cold air comes into the Plains and the Delta for a day or two, but this won't be severe. At best, temperatures might drop into the teens on the morning of Jan. 1 then quickly moderate

Looking ahead to next week, the models are showing a another major trough in the jet stream developing over the Midwest and the East Coast, but this one looks to be a little colder. This trough could develop a low that might bring some snow to the Midwest and portions of the Northeast. But for the central and lower Plains, week two looks quiet

 

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