WxRisk.com: Weather Models Delay Southern Plains Rains

November 15, 2011 04:35 AM

The following content was provided by meteorologist David Tolleris of WxRisk.com:

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Link to national radar.


The Tuesday morning radar shows a line of storms and heavy showers running southwest to northeast... from northern ARK into the boot heel of southeast MO... northwest TN far southern ILL most of KY southern half of OH, western WVA into western and central and central PA. There is a second cluster of storms over southwest TX and light showers over eastern WI and a band of snow over central ND.


What happened Monday?
MONDAY MAX TEMPS...  MONDAY MAX TEMPS... Max temperatures on MONDAY were in the 40s over eastern MT eastern WY ND northern MN... 50s over northeast COL... SD northern NEB southern MN northern IA WI northern ILL MI... 60s over southeast COL southern NEB KS western OK western TX southern IA northern MO central ILL central IND and northern OH... 70s over eastern OK southern MO southern ILL southern IND southern OH KY TN... 80s over eastern TX all of ARK LA MS MS and GA.

MONDAY - TUESDAY RAINFALL... ending as of 7AM CDT NOV 15. Most of the Plains and the western Corn Belt (WCB) regions were dry. There were some scattered showers over eastern MT and western ND into northwest MN....30% coverage of 0.05 to 0.25". Heavy rains fell from eastern OK into central and northern ARK into western TN southeast ILL all of IND OH KY WVA western and central PA and western NY... 0.25 to 2.00" with 70% coverage . The best rains ( 1.50 to 2.0") fell over northern ARK the boot heel of MO far southern ILL and southwest IND

The GFS and European model has moved the rains further east away from the Lower Plains so that Delta and eastern Corn Belt (ECB) stays wet but the Lower Plains miss the rains over the next 5 days. Models still show major low hitting into the Pacific NW / N Rockies NOV 18-19 with snow for MT ND. Models show BIG rains hitting lower Plains NOV 22 Midwest NOV 23.

DAY 1-5.. NOV 15-19 The cold front moving through the ECB this morning is going to stall or slow down dramatically over the next 3 days bringing good rains to the LOWER WCB... southern of I-70 and over the TN valley and Deep South regions. Coverage will be 60-65% of another of 0.50 to 3.00 between Now and Friday.

Meanwhile next weekend a major trough and surface Low crashes into the Pacific Northwest.

6-10 DAY... NOV 20-24
The early morning GFS and European models keep this trough together as it crosses the Rockies. This combined with the inflow from the Gulf increases rains for all of the central and Lower Plains NOV 22 and the Midwest NOV 23. Right now the eastern half of the Plains sees 0.25 to 1.50" with 60-70% coverage and the Midwest sees 0.25 to 2.00" all all of the ECB and the eastern half of the WCB. Right now... the early call is that SOME decent rains will reach the western half of the Lower Plains but this COULD change.

11-15 DAY... NOV 25-29
The pattern is locked in... Deep trough in the Jet stream over the Gulf of Alaska into the West coast means more BIG storms crashing into the Pacific Northwest. As we move into end of NOV and beginning of DEC...as the Jet stream comes south as it always does ... this West coast pattern COULD mean increased rain chances for the Lower Plains.

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